The Indianapolis Colts are going to be tested overall against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5. If quarterback Geno Smith is playing well and turnover-free, he can lead the Vegas offense to points. Part of the issue is that one of his offensive weapons has not been fully healthy.
Tight end Brock Bowers injured his knee in Week 1 and hasn't been the same since. There is even a chance he doesn't play against Indy as he is listed as questionable, but didn't practice on Thursday or Friday. Even if he does play, Indy might be able to limit him extremely well.
That is because so far this season. Indianapolis hasn't allowed opposing tight ends to do much against them. According to ESPN's Seth Walder, only 14 percent of pass targets against the Colts have gone to tight ends.
Indianapolis Colts predicted to shut down Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers
This could be because Indy hasn't yet played many teams with good players at the position, but when healthy, Bowers isn't just good, but elite. As a rookie last season, he had 112 catches for 1,194 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns. Those are the kinds of numbers that Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren is trending toward.
But Walder goes a step further than simply naming the percentage of targets tight ends have gotten against Indy; the ESPN writer predicts that should Bowers play, he won't get as many as 30 receiving yards.
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If that happens, or Bowers misses the game completely or is limited in reps, the already iffy Raiders passing game will be gravely affected. Geno Smith has already thrown seven interceptions as he likes to force throws to areas he shouldn't. With no Bowers, Smith might do that even more.
Las Vegas's issue is multifold. For one, Bowers isn't fully healthy. Secondly, the Indianapolis Colts are very good at shutting down opposing tight ends. Thirdly, Smith might try to get Bowers involved, and the Indy players would be happy to steal any mistakes.
The Colts should win in Week 5. The team is better than the Raiders, and Indianapolis is playing at home. If Indy can stop Las Vegas from running the ball effectively with rookie running back Ashton Jeany, the Colts should win by two touchdowns.