The 2025 season has started quite promisingly for the Indianapolis Colts. The team is in first place in the AFC South through four games, and has a manageable schedule until the Week 11 bye week. Indy could be in a prime playoff position relatively early in the season.
A big reason for the success is quarterback Daniel Jones and the offense. Jones was a somewhat stunning choice to be QB1 ahead of the season, chosen over 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson. The gamble has so far paid off extremely well.
In fact, maybe too well for Indianapolis. While general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen hoped that Danny Dimes would be a great fit in the offensive scheme, the fact that he is playing at such a high level, with the potential to continue doing so, makes next offseason tricky.
Daniel Jones might be forcing the Indianapolis Colts to re-think everything
For one, Jones has already been paid as much as $40 million a season in his career. The New York Giants made that mistake. The quarterback understands how the business works, and knows someone is going to pay him a lot of money next offseason, and that team should be Indy.
But is Jones truly the long-term option to be QB1? His current quarterback rating is 103.3, which is by far the highest of his career. His completion percentage is 71.9, another number that is by far the highest he has had. In other words, there is no history to back up that Jones will keep playing so well.
Letting him walk in free agency in 2026 after proving he is a good fit in Steichen's system would rightfully outrage many Colts fans. It also means starting over.
But Chris Ballard might have been looking at his future cap space, assuming Jones would be solid but not $30-plus million worthy, and thinking the team is in good shape. Indy currently has $59,031,823 in cap room next year, and a new Jones deal would obviously affect that number.
What happens, however, if the Indianapolis Colts pay Jones a ton of money and he regresses to his previous level? That would cripple the team financially and affect the on-field product.
Ballad and Steichen also need to think of what to do with Anthony Richardson, as he would be stuck as a backup, and whether to then draft another quarterback. If so, where in the draft? Spending a first-round choice wouldn't make sense as the expectation is that Jones would be good in the future, and he is only 28 years old.
Of course, the future could also be quite bright if Daniel Jones continues to play well, not only this season, but into the future for the Colts. The team would be set up for long-term success. Unexpected, sure, but still factual.