A game script can sometimes explain football quirks that, on the surface, seem completely nonsensical. For instance, through the first four games of the 2025 season, the Indianapolis Colts have the eighth-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, but are only 22nd in yards per rush. How is that possible?
Well, the NFL measures team statistics by total yards gained or allowed. So when we say that the Colts have the eighth-ranked rushing defense, we are really saying they have given up the eighth-fewest yards to opponents on the ground.
Since their yards-per-rush total is worse than the league median, it means that they have surrendered so few yards because they have faced fewer runs this season. The Colts have defended just 85 running plays in 2025 – the fewest in the league. By contrast, five other teams have faced at least 120 runs through four games.
The Colts’ run defense will get a fascinating test against the Raiders
This is where the game script comes into play. In two of the four games, Indianapolis has gotten out to enormous early leads. They were up 30-0 against Miami in Week 1, and up 27-6 against Tennessee in Week 3. Because those two opponents fell so far behind so quickly, they essentially abandoned the run.
Indy’s other two games were closer affairs, and their opponents ran the ball more as a result. But those two lopsided games skew the numbers quite a bit early in the season.
In Week 5, Lou Anarumo’s defense faces the Las Vegas Raiders, and prior to last week, this appeared to be an ideal matchup for a run defense that needed to rev its engines. Through the first three games, the Raiders’ running attack was anemic, averaging a paltry 3.1 yards per carry.
But if the Colts' defense displays a bit of a split personality when it comes to defending the run, the Raiders have been an absolute Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. With Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, Vegas’ run-happy coach Pete Carroll did not give up despite early-season struggles.
In Week 4 against the Bears, Jeanty and company ran the ball 31 times for 240 yards. They entered the game with a mere 217 yards on the ground through the first three weeks.
Their Week 4 performance raised Las Vegas’ yards-per-rush from that 3.1 figure all the way up to 4.5, which just so happens to be exactly what the Colts have been giving up in 2025.
You can expect Carroll to continue hammering away with Jeanty serving as the hammer. Perhaps if Daniel Jones puts a lot of points on the board as he did in Weeks 1 and 3, that particular game script will force the Raiders to lean more heavily on the passing game, but don’t hold your breath on that.
Even if Indy builds a double-digit lead early on, the Raiders will continue to run and make Anarumo’s charges prove they can shut it down. And should Vegas grab an early lead, Jeanty might carry the ball 40 times.
Either way, the Colts’ front seven will need to step up in a major way. The tackling from the secondary – especially from safeties Nick Cross and Cam Bynum – has been quite good. But the big guys who play in front of them need to do a better job of plugging holes.
Zaire Franklin and Joe Bachie are currently graded as two of the least effective run-stopping linebackers in the entire NFL, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required.) And if you place any stock in PFF’s grading system, they are not getting much help from the men in front of them. Amongst interior linemen and edges, only Grover Stewart and Laiatu Latu rank in the top 50 as run defenders at their respective positions.
Against the Raiders, Anarumo will need more out of the likes of DeForest Buckner and Adetomiwa Adebawore in the middle and Kwity Paye and Samsun Ebukam on the edge. And they need Franklin to menace Jeanty all day long.
The Raiders are not a very good team right now. They are 1-3 and have a point differential of minus-22 through four weeks. The Colts should be able to score and perhaps create a positive game script as they did against weaker opponents in Weeks 1 and 3.
But regardless of game script, they are going to have to stop the newly resurgent Raiders' running attack and Ashton Jeanty. We’ll see on Sunday if Anarumo’s squad is up to the task.