The consensus across the NFL says that the Indianapolis Colts' offense will rise or fall in 2026 based on how well quarterback Daniel Jones performs. This is not exactly a radical thought. You could probably make the same statement about three-quarters of the teams in the league. Just sub in a different QB depending on the team.
I think I could argue that point for all of the Colts’ AFC South opponents. Will CJ Stroud ever regain his rookie-season form? Will Trevor Lawrence continue his ascendency now that he finally has a coach with a clue? Cam Ward – boom or bust?
With Jones, the questions and concerns are drawn from something very real. After a very good 2022 season in which he had his best quarterback rating to date and led his team to a winning record, he was rewarded with a new contract. He did not live up to it in the next two seasons. There is an understandable reason for caution when assessing his prospects for 2026.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is not the same quarterback of 2024
I’m here to reassure Colts fans. Of course, I don’t know how he will return from the Achilles injury that cut short his 2025 season. But assuming relative health, there are a lot of reasons why he ought to play much more like he did last year than he did in 2024.
It’s not fair to dwell on his 2023 season. He got hurt and only played in six games. It is fair to say that in those six games, he was not very good. But I’m going to look at the 2024 season, because the arguments are the same. He was not very good that year either and was eventually benched and then released. Not an auspicious sign for a former top ten draft pick.
But here’s the thing. Daniel Jones was playing with an inferior offense for most of his time in New York. They had a few excellent players, but across the board, there was a serious lack of talent. Jones is not the transcendent QB talent that will elevate everyone around him. But he is a good playmaker who can generate points when he plays with a good roster.
The simple fact is that Daniel Jones in 2026 will have much better offensive talent around him than he did with New York in 2024. Let’s compare, shall we?
We’ll use Pro Football Focus (subscription required) grades to make our comparisons. They are not perfect, but as a broad-spectrum barometer, they offer a good picture of relative talent. We’ll start with the skill position players.
At running back in 2024, Jones had rookie Tyrone Tracy as his lead back, with support from veteran journeyman Devin Singletary. Tracy’s PFF grade was 58.4. He ranked 45th out of 47 qualified running backs.
With the Colts, Jones hands the ball off to Jonathan Taylor. Last year, Taylor recorded a grade of 78.1, good for 16th among 59 qualified runners. Clear advantage to the Colts.
The same applies at tight end, where the Colts’ Tyler Warren far outpaces the 2024 numbers of Theo Johnson of New York.
Wide receiver is trickier because the Colts' third receiver spot is currently up for grabs. The Giants' one true star on offense was wideout Malik Nabers. He recorded a higher number than anyone on the Colts. But the two returning Colts’ receivers, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, were rated far ahead of the Giants' other pass catchers in 2024 – Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton.
Amongst skill position players, even with a void at WR3, four of Indianapolis’ five starters ranked in the top third of the league in 2025. Every skill position starter Jones played with in 2024, except Nabers, ranked in the bottom half of the league.
On the offensive line, the contrast is even more glaring. Every Colts projected starter ranked in the top half of the league last season, with two of them ranking in the top five. Jalen Travis, who steps in at right tackle this year, didn’t play enough snaps to have a ranking, but his sample size was nonetheless decent, and his grade was quite good.
The Giants lost their only good lineman, Andrew Thomas, for most of the season in ’24, so the bottom line is this. The lowest-graded Colts starting lineman last year – Matt Goncalves – had a higher grade than the Giants' highest-rated regular starter in 2024.
If you like averages, here’s how they compare. In 2024, the offensive line that Daniel Jones played behind had an average PFF grade of 61.1. Last year, his projected line with the Colts in 2026 had an average grade of 77.5. That is a below-average grade in 2024 to a borderline-elite grade in 2025 and presumably, in 2026.
At the skill positions, using Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's very poor 2025 grade for the Colts, Indy still dominates 70.7 to 64.2.
PFF recently published an article ranking the best offensive supporting casts (non-quarterbacks). The Rams, Seahawks, and Lions were the top three. All have elite offenses. The 49ers, Bears, and Bills were numbers five to seven.
The Indianapolis Colts ranked right in the middle of those teams, at number four. The fourth-best offensive supporting cast in the entire NFL.
I believe in Daniel Jones. But you don’t even have to agree with me in order to project a good season for him in 2026. You just have to look at what he has around him compared to all those fallow years in New York.
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