What will Anthony Richardson’s stats look like in year one with Colts?

With the 2023 NFL season starting, here’s a year one stat projection for Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Indianapolis Colts v Philadelphia Eagles
Indianapolis Colts v Philadelphia Eagles / Michael Owens/GettyImages

The Anthony Richardson era for the Indianapolis Colts will officially start on Sunday, September 10, when Indy hosts the Jacksonville Jaguars for a Week 1 matchup. The hope is that this era of Colts football will be exciting and fruitful, thanks to the dynamic Richardson.

All throughout the 2023 NFL Draft process, Richardson was viewed as an intriguing prospect with an insanely high ceiling. He’s 6-foot-4, somewhere around 250 pounds, can run a 4.4 40-yard dash, and can seemingly throw the ball a mile. He’s a video game quarterback with the highlights to match, but there’s an understanding that he needs to grow, like all rookies do.

However, since joining the Colts in the offseason, Richardson has been ahead of schedule. After an impressive offseason and training camp, all it took was one preseason game before he was officially named Indy’s starting quarterback. He’ll get his first official start on Sunday and everyone is anxious to know how he’ll do; not just on Sunday, but all year.

Of, course, time will tell, but we can project until we know for sure.

Projecting Anthony Richardson’s rookie stats with Colts

NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund recently used one of her famous mathematical models to project a year one stat line for starting rookie quarterbacks. Frelund’s projection for Richardson is 3,171 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 802 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns.

If Richardson posted those numbers as a rookie, Indianapolis would be thrilled. That would be more passing yards and touchdowns than Matt Ryan had last year, less interceptions, and also more total yards than Carson Wentz had two seasons ago. Additionally, it’d mean that Richardson was productive passing and running, and also protecting the ball.

Richardson’s numbers also shine in comparison to the other rookie quarterbacks. Frelund’s projection for Bryce Young is 3,459 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 272 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown. For Stroud, the projection is 3,399 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 297 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown.

All three have around the same amount of total touchdowns, but Young and Stroud have a few hundred more projected passing yards. However, Richardson makes that up on the ground, as he’s undoubtedly the best runner of the three. If these numbers were posted by Richardson, Colts fans probably wouldn’t care how they compare to other rookies, as Richardson would be thriving and likely helping Indy win games.