How likely is it that Colts make a big mistake in the first round of the 2023 Draft?

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The Indianapolis Colts have to make an important pick at the top of the 2023 NFL Draft. What are the chances that Indy makes a mistake with its pick?

In a few days, the Indianapolis Colts will be on the clock in the 2023 NFL Draft. Indy currently has the No. 4 pick, but could be picking even higher if they can negotiate a trade with teams like the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 or the Houston Texans at No. 2. Regardless of where the Colts ultimately pick, they are expected to select a quarterback.

The question that everyone has been asking all offseason is which quarterback? Sitting at No. 4, Indy’s decision could be largely impacted by the selections of the three teams in front of it. However, if Indianapolis does have options when it’s on the clock, what are the chances that Indy actually makes the right decision. In order to determine that, we must decide what we think a mistake for the Colts would be.

Maurice Moton of Bleacher Report recently looked at some first-round mistakes that teams could make, and the likelihood of those mistakes actually happening. For the Colts, Moton determined that Indy selecting Will Levis over Anthony Richardson would be a mistake. As far as the probability of that happening, Moton gave it an 8 out of 10, with 10 being “a highly probable outcome.”

Colts expected to make the mistake of drafting Will Levis over Anthony Richardson

Throughout the pre-draft process, there have been numerous reports that Indy is favoring Levis over Richardson. However, Chris Ballard has warned everyone to not believe any reports about the Colts, because he’s confident that the team’s draft plans and evaluations have been kept confidential.

What is true, is that Indy’s selection will likely come down to Levis and Richardson. Despite recent speculation that Levis could go as early as No. 2, the expectation is that both Levis and Richardson will make it to No. 3, and Indy will have a chance to acquire either or. Will it really be a mistake to select Levis over Richardson?

Fans would certainly be upset on draft night if that happened. While both prospects have some question marks, Richardson has separated himself from Levis with his elite athleticism and sky-high ceiling. With both prospects seeming like a gamble, everyone prefers that the Colts gamble on the quarterback with the higher ceiling. That’s Anthony Richardson.

However, whether or not it would really be a mistake to select Levis instead, can’t be decided until a couple of years down the road. Once both guys are a few years into their careers, it will be clear which player was the better pick.

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