All Indianapolis Colts’ fans recognize that Daniel Jones has been struggling of late. So has right guard Matt Goncalves. Both had better be at their best this Sunday because the Houston Texans are coming to town.
This is Shane Steichen’s most important game of the season. It is quite possibly the most important game in his three years as the Colts’ head coach. In the first month of 2025, it looked as if Indy might run away with the AFC South. After three weeks, they had a three-game lead over the reigning champion Texans.
Two months later, things have tightened. Jacksonville is just one game back, and those Texans, riding a three-game winning streak, are just two games out of first place. They just happen to play the Colts two times over the final six weeks.
In Week 13, the game is in Lucas Oil Stadium. It may not be an absolute must-win for Steichen’s team, but it is about as close as a front-runner can come to having one this early in the season.
Colts’ offensive line must meet a formidable challenge this week
If there is one position match-up that will determine the outcome, it is the Colts’ offensive line against the Houston front four. Those are both teams' two greatest strengths.
The problem for Indy is that its outstanding offensive line is coming off one of its worst performances of the year. Chris Jones and the rest of his Kansas City Chiefs front seven ran roughshod over the Colts, stuffing the run and preventing Daniel Jones from making the big plays that have become routine this season.
It was especially tough on the interior of the line. Jones, Mike Pennell, and the Chiefs' aggressive linebacking corps played in the Colts’ backfield for much of the game.
Now, Indianapolis faces an even more formidable defense in DeMeco Ryans’ swarming Texans. The interior of the line will again be tested by the power of Tim Settle and Sheldon Rankins, as well as by the speed of Tommy Togai and Mario Edwards.
But the real danger from Houston comes from the edges. Will Anderson, Jr. and Danielle Hunter are the only two teammates who have recorded double figures in sacks this season. Since only five players in the entire league have reached that level, you can see how productive the Texans have been.
They head up a defense that is strong across the board. First in the league in yards allowed. Second in total points and yards per play.
This will be a whole-line effort, including all three of Indy's tight ends and whoever is in the backfield alongside Jones. But much of the battle will come down to Bernhard Raimmann and Braden Smith against Anderson and Hunter.
The reason this game looms extra large is the venue. Offensive lines are at a distinct disadvantage when they play on the road. Watching the Colts struggle in Kansas City showed how crowd noise can disrupt even the best of lines. Though it may not be “must-win,” Indy needs this game to reestablish momentum. And they need to take advantage of the home field.
In 2024, the Colts and Texans played two close games, decided by a total of five points. Houston came out on top in both, but the game scripts were different. When they played at home, the Colts were able to keep Houston’s formidable defense in check for the most part.
Indy's defense simply couldn’t get off the field, allowing the Texans to convert nine third and fourth down plays, which extended drives and dominated possession. But the Colts’ offense averaged seven yards per play, allowed just two sacks, and had one turnover. It wasn’t a great performance, but it was good enough against a great defense.
When they played in Houston, Colts’ fans saw just how good that defense was. Indy averaged just 4.8 yards per play, gave up five sacks, and had two turnovers. Those ends – Anderson and Hunter – combined for three sacks and three tackles-for-loss.
The Colts’ offense has been brilliant for much of ’25, and that has started with a stellar offensive line. They are facing some adversity now and have their biggest test of the year coming up. We will get a very good indication this Sunday of whether this team is built for playoff success.