Why the Colts still hold the edge in the AFC South race

The Indianapolis Colts are still the front runners to win the AFC South despite the loss to the Rams.
Indianapolis Colts v Los Angeles Rams - NFL 2025
Indianapolis Colts v Los Angeles Rams - NFL 2025 | Ronald Martinez/GettyImages

The Colts are going into the Raiders game with a slight edge against the Jaguars this weekend. Despite both teams being 3-1, the Colts are 3-0 in the conference while the Jags are just 1-1, giving Indianapolis the tiebreaker.

Before the season started, the Colts were a contender to hold a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft, and Chris Ballard was criticized for signing former Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to a one-year prove-it deal worth $14 million. Colts fans let out a sigh of frustration as the quarterback carousel continued, and neither Anthony Richardson nor Daniel Jones seemed a viable option.

General Manager Chris Ballard took a different approach in free agency, targeting elite talent in positions of need, in particular the secondary. While the next best option was a washed-up Aaron Rodgers, Jones seemed like a desperation signing to save his job.

The Colts are in win-now mode

The current standings in the AFC South are:

  • Indianapolis Colts 3-1
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1
  • Houston Texans 1-3
  • Tennessee Titans 0-4

Indianapolis has been playing extremely well; in particular, they proved they were the team to beat two weeks ago in Tennessee as they demolished the Titans. Jacksonville has been shaky at best in the previous four games, losing to Houston and San Francisco by a combined 12 points.

However, a week 1 flashy game against the Panthers, who we now know are a dumpster fire. Their sole loss of the season came against the Bengals by only 4 points.

The Texans have major questions about their offensive line, and it's showing. Houston can't seem to get out of their own way, and C.J Stroud can only do so much without a supporting cast around him. Denico Autry is still listed on the injury report, and Nico Collins' status is still up in the air heading into Sunday's game against the Ravens. If the Texans don't solve their offensive line issues, they will get a top-five pick in the draft.

Finally, we get to the Titans, who can't seem to play a game without less than 50 penalty yards. Brian Callahan is one of the worst head coaches in the league, and the debacle at the end of the first half in the Colts game was inexcusable. Cam Ward is incredibly green and is taking time to develop, and the coaches' incessant need to be a power-run team is holding them back.

Even with the Jaguars on their heels, the Colts are in command of the AFC South, and Shane Steichen has the Colts offense playing the best it has been since Andrew Luck retired. Although the defense has a few holes, they have been keeping the Colts in games, and Bynum and Ward are looking like solid signings in the secondary.

The Colts hold their own destiny in their hands. With five AFC South Division games still left to play, the Colts begin pulling away this week as the Jags play the Chiefs on Monday night and the Texans play the Ravens on Sunday.

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