Contrary to what the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills may have to say about it, repeating as a division champion in the NFL is not such an easy task. In the NFC East, for instance, you have to go back 20 years to find a team that successfully defended its title. That includes multiple squads that won Super Bowls but couldn’t manage two straight division crowns.
The Houston Texans enter the 2025 season looking for a third consecutive AFC South championship. They have claimed six of the last ten, while Jacksonville and Tennessee have split the other four. Notice anyone missing from that list?
Of course, it wasn’t always like this. Before 2015, the Indianapolis Colts had been the bullies of the division, taking nine out of thirteen titles. Not many pundits are giving Shane Steichen’s crew a chance this year – by my informal count, the number stands at zero. But the road to the AFC South promised land got a little bit easier yesterday for all three teams chasing the Houston Texans.
A huge Indianapolis Colts rival is hurting (literally)
Houston placed starting running back Joe Mixon on the reserve/NFI list on Monday. NFI stands for “non-football injury.” Mixon has been dealing with a foot issue sustained over the summer.
News about Mixon’s health was not made readily available, and an aura of mystery continues to surround his exact condition. But whereas this was initially seen as a minor inconvenience, Monday’s news makes it abundantly clear that Joe Mixon is struggling with a significant injury. He may return by Week five, but that is totally up in the air at this point.
How important is Joe Mixon to the Texans offense?
Despite missing three games, the Oklahoma grad had one of his best seasons in 2024. He scored 34 percent of Houston’s offensive touchdowns – and a whopping 73 percent of their rushing scores.
He accounted for 22 percent of the team’s first downs and carried the ball more than all other Texans combined. In his first year with Houston, after seven seasons in Cincinnati, Mixon made his second Pro Bowl. He had scores in each of Houston’s playoff games.
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Even before this news, a lot of experts were predicting a new champion in the AFC South this season. They point to a regression in the play of Texan’s QB C.J. Stroud last year and a rebuilt and unproven offensive line.
Stroud should have a healthier group of receivers to throw to than he did in 2024, but if he doesn’t have a dangerous weapon in the running game to lean on, it will put added pressure on the third-year quarterback.
Were this 2022, no one would be worried about the Texans' run game. Mixon’s fill-ins – Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce - combined to run for almost 2,500 yards that season. But in the two years since, both runners have combined for less than half their total in 2022. It seems unlikely either can come close to approximating Joe Mixon’s production, especially with questions surrounding the Texans’ O line.
Jacksonville is a popular choice to unseat Houston this year. They have a new coach and some top-tier receivers who may finally unleash Trevor Lawrence. Tennessee has been garnering some under-the-radar buzz largely based on its new quarterback, Cam Ward.
Nobody is really giving the Colts much of a shot this year because of the iffy quarterback situation. But Indy has a roster that can hang with any team in the league, and if they get competent play from the quarterback, they could surprise. Joe Mixon’s injury situation makes it a little bit easier.