There isn’t much debate as to the worst division in the NFL in 2024. And it continues a sad trend. Well, sad for the fans of the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans at least. It is difficult to dispute the idea that in recent seasons, the AFC South has become largely irrelevant.
For the Colts, this slide toward insignificance has been especially demoralizing. Indy has been the standard-bearer. The one team in the division which has hoisted the Lombardi Trophy – twice.
That means the Colts have won more Super Bowls than the rest of the division has played in, combined. But those days now seem long gone.
How bad was the Indianapolis Colts' AFC South in 2024?
For a conference to have an overall .500 record in a seventeen game season, its teams must combine to win 34 games (barring ties).
That’s what the AFC North and NFC West managed last year. The Colts, et. al. managed just 25 wins. Only 13 out of a possible 44 wins came against teams from outside the division. No division team – even the champion Houston Texans – had a winning record outside the division.
OK, any division can have an off year. In 2023, three of the four teams in the AFC South posted winning records. Overall, they hit that break-even mark of 34 wins.
Alas, that is the outlier in recent years. 2024 was much closer to the recent reality. In the three seasons prior to ’23, the division teams failed to reach 30 combined wins. The last time a divisional squad reached the AFC championship game was at the end of the 2019 season, when Tennessee fell to the eventual Super Bowl winner, Kansas City.
This year, Houston looks to extend its streak to three straight division titles. They have won the last two with 10-7 records. In the past decade, the Texans have managed four double-digit win seasons. That’s a respectable number, especially for a team that virtually sacrificed three straight years dealing with fallout from the DeShaun Watson fiasco.
For context, the Colts, Jags, and Titans have managed five double-digit win seasons combined in the past decade.
For the Colts, who last won a playoff game in 2018, the recovery from Andrew Luck’s retirement has been particularly painful. The team that made 16 playoff appearances between 1995 and 2014 has been back just twice since then.
They have flailed away with aging QBs who were past their prime and have not been able to find enough dynamic playmakers on either side of the ball. If you are looking for a silver lining heading into 2025. You can at least hang your hat on the fact that with players like Anthony Richardson and Tyler Warren, Indy does have some dynamic young talent that could blossom.
But that’s an awfully big “could.”
The other reason for optimism comes from just how mediocre the division is. Every team has significant questions, even the two-time defending champion Texans. How will their reconstituted offensive line perform? How much time will running back Joe Mixon miss? Will their new set of receivers, two of whom are rookies, provide enough firepower behind Nico Collins?
The Jaguars have a new, unproven coach. The Titans have a new rookie under center. It is hard to feel unreservedly confident about any team in the division.
And that’s what opens the door for a team like Indianapolis. They’re due for some good luck. Let’s say Shane Steichen makes the right call at quarterback and that Warren is as good as advertised. Let’s say Laiatu Latu develops into one of the league’s elite pass rushers and JT Tuimoloau settles in as a plus two-way end.
Lets say that the offensive line and Jonathan Taylor rekindle the spark that had fans so excited back in 2020/’21.
You may scoff. “That’s a lot of what ifs.” I grant you that. But none of those things are highly unlikely. And each of the Colts’ divisional opponents have their own collections of “what ifs.”
There was a time, not so long ago, when football in the AFC South was exciting. After Peyton Manning left Indy, the division seemed wide open. Anyone could claim it.
Names like J.J. Watt and Derrick Henry, Jalen Ramsey and DeAndre Hopkins, called it home. So did Shaq Leonard and Quenton Nelson. Andrew Luck and DeShaun Watson looked like the future, and not the past. The division may be down, but there is pedigree here.
Does that mean anything for the 2025 Indianapolis Colts? Maybe not, but it’s a fan’s right to hope.