Had the team applied the franchise tag for just $6 million more than the transition one ($37,833,000 in total), Indianapolis would have almost guaranteed the quarterback would return for 2026. Had he signed elsewhere, Indy would have received the equivalent of two first-round draft picks. It would have been a win-win.
Instead, Jones can agree to a deal somewhere else for more than the franchise tag would have paid him, and the Colts would get nothing back in return. The risk for general manager Chris Ballard is two-fold.
Placing the transition tag on Daniel Jones comes with a huge risk for the Indianapolis Colts
One is the team simply losing Jones to another team that understands it needs to pay the QB more than the transition tag. A smart team would work out a long-term deal with Jones that is backloaded with incentives, ones he can reach after returning from his Achilles tendon injury in Week 14 this past season, one that might keep him out at the start of next year.
The contract could have a higher average annual salary than the franchise tag, which is $43,895,000, which would reset Ballard and the Colts expectations on how much they want and can pay the quarterback. The risk with placing the transition tag is greater than the franchise tag for not much less money.
Teams, such as the Minnesota Vikings, might think they are close to truly competing for a title and be willing to pay Daniel Jones a bit more. If he is the missing link, why not do it? Unfortunately, Chris Ballard did not fully buy into his only belief, or he would have ended any drama with the franchise tag applied to the QB.
Plus, this complicates matters when it comes to potentially re-signing wide receiver Alec Pierce. Indy cannot tag Pierce, so he is free to do whatever he wants in free agency. One rumored part of his availability was that he might be more interested in returning to the Colts if Jones were coming back. With no guarantee that Jones will, Pierce might be more aggressive in free agency.
He is arguably the best available wideout after the Dallas Cowboys franchise tagged George Pickens, and Pierce might get offers of more than $25 million. That might be too rich for Indianapolis, and he could sign a new contract before Jones makes his final decision on where to go.
These moves also mean the futures of potential cap casualties Michael Pittman Jr. and Zaire Franklin are in flux. If the Indianapolis Colts end up not having to pay for Daniel Jones or Alec Pierce, keeping Pittman and Franklin makes sense. But those decisions might not now come until after free agency has started.
The best-case scenario would be for the Indianapolis Colts to work out a long-term deal with Daniel Jones before free agency unofficially begins on Monday, March 9. If that happens, Pierce would know Jones is returning, and Indy would know how much it can offer the wide receiver. If one were Jones, though, it makes sense to see what other teams might offer him to sign with them.