Daniel Jones is probably coming back to the Indianapolis Colts. Everyone knew that was going to happen either through being re-signed or having the franchise or transition tag applied to him, right? Now that that has happened, what's next?
This isn't as easy to answer as it seems. After all, no guarantee exists that Jones will be ready in Week 1 of the 2026 season, or even Week 6. After tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 14, he could miss much of next year, so was bringing him back the right move at all?
The truth is, general manager Chris Ballard didn't have much of a choice. He traded Indy's next two first-round picks to get cornerback Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets during the 2025 season. Not getting Jones back meant the team would have likely had to go with Riley Leonard or Anthony Richardson as QB1 for all of next season. Not ideal.
Indianapolis Colts transition tag Daniel Jones ahead of free agency
In fact, one reason that Ballard made the Gardner trade was that he assumed Jones would be Indy's long-term quarterback, and the focus could be aimed elsewhere. The GM did this even though he didn't aggressively pursue re-signing Jones during the season. Weird.
Indianapolis could still lose Daniel Jones, though. Ballard applied the transition tag on the quarterback, meaning Jones and his agent could negotiate elsewhere, work out a deal, and the Colts have the right to match the deal.
If they didn't and Jones left, Indy gets nothing in return, whereas had they applied the franchise tag, the Colts would have received the equivalent of two first-round picks for losing the QB. The difference between the transition tag and franchise tag in price might be the most important part.
The franchise tag costs a team $43.9 million for a quarterback, but the transition tag costs a team $37.9 million. Ballard might have gambled that any team wanting to sign Jones was willing to give him a deal akin to what Sam Darnold signed with the Seattle Seahawks last offseason. Darnold makes an average of $33.5 million a season.
A team could have offered Jones $50 million a season, and Indianapolis might have been sunk with the transition tag. Would that have been an overpay by the other team? Sure, but the NFL has done plenty of overpays.
Now that Jones is seemingly back in the fold for the long run (assuming the team now signs the quarterback to an extension), the Indianapolis Colts have some major decisions to make. Re-signing wide receiver Alec Pierce is the priority.
The team cannot tag him as they tagged Jones, and only one player can have the tag applied, and might need to pay him more than $20 million a season to bring him back.
For that to happen, Indy might need to release wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (saving $24 million) and other players, such as inside linebacker Zaire Franklin. Those players would need to be replaced as well, of course, but by cheaper free agents or draft picks. Working out a long-term deal with Daniel Jones needs to happen, too, otherwise the whole move was pointless.