The Indianapolis Colts are playing a dangerous game with Daniel Jones. Using the transition tag on him won’t guarantee that he will be back, but they will most likely exhaust all avenues to outbid any other team that might be interested in his services. In the meantime, star WR Alec Pierce will be free to negotiate with every other team in the league.
Colts GM Chris Ballard chose positional value over everything else. That makes sense to a degree, especially given how much the Colts have struggled to find their franchise quarterback since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement nearly seven years ago.
Then again, Jones is coming off a major injury, and he hadn’t necessarily lived up to the expectations before he arrived in Indianapolis. Granted, Jones played the best football of his career under Shane Steichen’s tutelage.
Daniel Jones’ pre-injury numbers show plenty of red flags for the Indianapolis Colts
The quarterback market is more overblown than ever, and even with a season-ending injury, he did more than enough to get a big payday. Still, when giving his numbers a closer look, it seems that the honeymoon was almost over before he suffered his Achilles injury.
The Colts got off to a strong start to the season, firing on all cylinders with eight wins in their first ten games. However, in the two games before his broken leg, he combined for two touchdowns, four interceptions, six fumbles, and took 12 sacks. He posted PFF grades of 53.1 and 44, respectively, the two lowest of the season to that point.
All in all, Daniel Jones was much more average than the eye test suggested. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him at 71.7, which ranked 21st among 43 eligible quarterbacks. For context, Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones, and Tyler Shough all ranked higher than the former Duke product.
Of course, that’s not to say that Daniel Jones isn’t a good player or that he doesn’t deserve the money. Nevertheless, he’s struggled with inconsistency for most of his career, and one could argue that he’s only had two objectively good seasons in his seven years in the league.
The Giants regretted giving him a four-year, $160 million contract almost immediately, and history can repeat itself in Indianapolis.
Given the Colts’ current salary cap situation, Jones’ injury rehab, and the possibility of losing Pierce, perhaps this time is better spent pivoting toward Kyler Murray. Even if the Colts need some continuity at the position and top shut down that revolving door, Murray can be extremely motivated with a one-year, cheap “prove it” deal.
The Arizona Cardinals will pay his $36.8 million salary anyway, so Murray can cost them roughly $1.3 million. He’d have a chance to revive his career by playing for an offensive-minded coach and with a solid offensive line and a superstar running back like Jonathan Taylor. That’s an option worth at least considering.
Spotrac projects Jones to sign a four-year, $17.34 million contract at roughly $43.6 million.
The Colts are currently $4.1 million over the salary cap, according to Over The Cap, and while they will trim that number once (if) they reach a long-term deal with Jones, they still need to figure out a way to keep Pierce, who has admitted that he wants to test free agency and will garner plenty of interest in the market.