Who do you see as the Indianapolis Colts’ biggest rival for the AFC South crown in 2026? If you consult the oddsmakers – something I only do for informational purposes – the clear favorite is the Houston Texans. Makes sense, I suppose. They have won two out of the last three divisional titles. Since solving their quarterback problem with CJ Stroud, they have been to the playoffs three straight seasons.
Do you remember the last AFC South team to hit double digits in wins in three consecutive seasons, the way Houston has the last three years? (Hint: both their kicker and punter were first-team All-Pros, and one of them has a show on ESPN today.)
So, sure, with their dominant defense, the Texans are really good. The Colts have only managed one win against them since 2022. But they are not the defending divisional champs. That would be the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Indianapolis Colts fans need to hope Jacksonville does not take this advice
For some reason, it’s easy to overlook the Jags. They’ve claimed two of the last four AFC South crowns. Their 13 wins in 2025 is the most in the division since the Colts won 14 in 2009. Over the last five years, Indy has a three-and-seven record against London’s favorite American football club.
Still, the public favors Houston.
That could be because Jacksonville has had the quietest offseason I can recall for an NFL team. They had no first-round pick in the draft. Their biggest moves in free agency were re-signing a rotational linebacker and bringing in two backup running backs.
Their biggest headline came when their quarterback got a haircut.
And yet, Jacksonville is a team on the rise. It begins with a very good coach who appeared to finally unlock the latent talent of QB Trevor Lawrence. They have a significantly improved, opportunistic defense under another ascendent coordinator.
The Jags did nothing with mirrors in 2025. Their plus-138 point differential was fourth in the NFL. The two Super Bowl teams and the current betting favorite to take the Lombardi Trophy in 2026 are the only teams that finished 2025 with a better mark.
Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report recently wrote an article suggesting one move for each NFL team to make this offseason. For instance, he advised the Colts to go get another quality receiver to replace Michael Pittman.
Even though the Jaguars have done very little so far, Knox did not identify any major holes in their starting lineup that require immediate attention. So he suggested they add pass rushing depth. I agree with his advice.
Jacksonville already has an elite edge rusher in defensive end Josh Hines-Allen. The 2019 first-round pick out of Kentucky has rather quietly developed into one of the league’s best defenders. His exceptional 2023 season, in which he recorded 17.5 sacks, announced his arrival.
In the wake of that, the eight sacks he had last season may seem disappointing, but considering he registered 46 total pressures, it’s hard to find much fault.
Travon Walker, the top overall pick in 2022, may be on a similar trajectory. His production has been underwhelming based on that draft pedigree, but he has produced, and that production is on the rise.
Walker is just entering his prime and Hines-Allen is already there. The Jags appear set on the edge, right?
Not really. You need more than two edge rushers, no matter how good they may be. Rushing the passer may well be the single job on a football field that requires the greatest lower body explosiveness. That is something that is virtually impossible to maintain play after play. Edge rushers need rest. There are very few that pull off what Maxx Crosby does, staying on the field almost every play.
Hines-Allen and Walker could both handle about 70% of Jacksonville’s defensive snaps and maintain peak efficiency. But beyond that, most players need a series on the bench to refresh.
As of right now, Jacksonville has virtually nothing in reserve.
They are hopeful that rookie Wesley Williams can help pick up the slack. Maybe – but I wouldn’t bet on him developing into anything special, at least not right away. Last year’s edge depth – Dawuane Smoot and Emmanuel Ogbah – are well past 30 and are currently unsigned.
The other quality pass rushers on the defense – tackle Arik Armstead, linebacker Dennis Gardeck – are also getting on in years. They remain part of the defensive attack, but the Jags need more if they are to maintain a defense that finished second in the league in turnovers in 2025.
Last year, their team sack total was not very good, but their team pressure rate was better. Sacks, by themselves, can be a misleading number. Jacksonville’s blitz rate and pressure rate were almost identical. The ratio was just under one. That’s pretty good. But elite defenses are above one.
Seattle, Denver, Houston, Philadelphia, and both teams from Los Angeles all had pressure-to-blitz ratios above one last year. That is where Jacksonville needs to get if they want to really challenge the best in the league. And they are not getting to that level if they only have Hines-Allen and Walker on the outside.
Knox suggests that the Jaguars bring in a veteran pass rushing end like Derek Barnett (who played on Houston last year) or Joey Bosa. Both are older players and would not be expected to shoulder a big load this season. But playing about 400 snaps behind clear starters would be an ideal situation. It would make the Jaguars defense considerably more formidable.
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