NFL teams have two approaches every year: One is to build the team they want, and the other is to respond to what their rivals are doing. It is both aspects that the Indianapolis Colts' offense might be able to brutalize the Jacksonville Jaguars' pass defense next season.
The issue for the Jags is that they are seemingly going to lack much of a pass rush, but Indy has been able to bring back quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce in free agency. Plus, ascending second-year tight end Tyler Warren should be even better with more experience in head coach Shane Steichen's scheme.
Jacksonville lost linebacker Devin Lloyd in free agency, and he was key to the Jaguars pass coverage last season. He had five interceptions, by far the best of his career. Now, he is with the Carolina Panthers.
Indianapolis Colts offense should be able to dominate the Jacksonville Jaguars defense in 2026
Meanwhile, the Jags have very little cap space and no ability to acquire high-end talent. In other words, Jacksonville's defense should have been worse last season, and missing Lloyd should expose just how bad the pass rush of the Jags is. Josh Hines-Allen led the team with eight sacks, 2.5 sacks better than anyone else on the team.
Does Indy have the same issues? Sure, but those were already known in 2025. If not for Daniel Jones tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 14, maybe the Colts would have survived their defensive woes. If the Jaguars take a step back defensively, which appears they are set to do, they might not survive.
The Indianapolis Colts are going to have to go through two teams to win the AFC South title for the first time since 2014. One is Jacksonville, and the other is the Houston Texans. The Tennessee Titans might be much better defensively in 2026 with new head coach Robert Saleh and a whole host of new defensive players, but their offense might struggle.
The Texans are going to be difficult. They likely got better this offseason and even added Colts offensive line stalwart Braden Smith. But Houston isn't unbeatable.
The return of Jones and Pierce, coupled with the talent already on Indianapolis's offense, might be enough to overcome a diminished Jacksonville defense. That might mean Indy gets two victories (yes, even defeating the Jaguars in Florida for the first time since what feels like the 1800s), and that should help get to the playoffs. A win over Houston could mean Indy gets the division crown.