The Indianapolis Colts pretty much ended the New York Jets' season in Week 11, defeating them 28 to 27. Not only did the Colts put an end to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets' playoff hopes, but they kept their own hopes of punching their ticket to the postseason alive.
At 5-6, the Colts still have plenty of work to do if they want to continue playing past the regular season, but they're the first team left out of the postseason on the AFC side. The Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Texans, Chargers, Ravens, and Broncos would make up the AFC playoffs if the season started right now, with Indy on the outside looking in.
While those top seven teams all have odds of at least 67% to make it in, crazier things have happened. Where do the Colts' playoff odds sit now that they're 5-6 after 11 games?
Colts playoff odds prove the team still has work to do
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Colts' chances of making the playoffs sit at 30% after their one-point win over the Jets. Fans will need to root strongly against the three Wild Card teams ahead of them in the standings and continue to root against the Texans, because theoretically, the AFC South could still go to the Colts if things break the right way.
The good news for the Colts is that out of their six remaining games, four come against teams with losing records and little to play for (Patriots, Titans, Giants, and Jaguars). The Texans, on the other hand, still have to play the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens. The Dolphins might have a losing record, but they're still mathematically alive in the playoff race, and have been trending upward since getting Tua Tagovailoa back in the starting lineup.
The AFC South is probably going to be hard for the Colts to steal away from the Texans, but if Indy takes care of business and wins those four games mentioned above, that'd give them nine wins on the year. A win against Denver in Week 15 will be a massive match-up, too, because the winner of that one could end up being the seven-seed in the playoff picture.