The NFL is a week-to-week league. Therefore, a team like the Indianapolis Colts, who fired their general manager six weeks into the season and are riding a three-game losing streak, can still salvage their season if they can just string a few wins together. That process has to begin this Sunday in Jacksonville.
If the Colts somehow manage to defeat the AFC South-leading Jaguars, they close the gap to a game-and-a-half and establish a solid tiebreaker over the Jags. The four games after this Sunday feature teams with a combined 9-16-1 record. Only one, the New York Giants, has a winning record, and the Giants have yet to beat a team with a winning record.
In other words, the season may appear to be in free fall. But it is not. Not yet. The Colts can still make a run this year, but the clock is ticking. This Sunday provides a wonderful opportunity, but it also poses a lot of challenges. Here are the things Shane Steichen’s troops will have to do in order to beat the Jags.
6 problems the Indianapolis Colts must address to beat Jacksonville in Week 8
Play a complete game
Most of the Colts problems this season have come on the defensive side of the ball. But two weeks ago, special teams blunders allowed Tennessee to get their first win of the season. And last week, with Indy playing its best defensive game of the year, the offense let them down.
I’m not sure who is responsible for this or how it gets fixed. It could simply be attributable to the fact that the 53-man roster isn’t good enough to sustain success in all parts of the game, which is one of the reasons Chris Ballard is no longer the GM.
But in lieu of any better answer, Shane Steichen needs to find a way to get all three phases of his team functioning at their best if they are going to beat a quality team like Jacksonville.
Get the running game going early and stick with it
The Colts tried to run the ball against the Vikings. 29 of their 59 plays were runs, and Daniel Jones scrambled on four other snaps. Apart from Jonathan Taylor’s long touchdown burst, they were not especially effective. But they need to commit to the run even more this week. They really have no other choice. The passing game simply isn’t good enough.
It won’t be easy. Jacksonville is very strong in the middle of the field. They have a couple of tackling machines at linebacker in Foyesade Oluokun and Ventrell Miller. They are strong up front, and Antonio Johnson shores up the back end.
But Houston, not the best running team in the league, plugged away last week, and it paid off. If there was ever a game in which the Colts had to rely on Quenton Nelson and his linemates, this is it. Look for some sets in which both Jonathan Taylor and Seth McGowan are on the field together as a means of diversifying the ground attack.
Get after Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence finally has a coach who seems capable of bringing out his best qualities. Liam Coen has unlocked some of the enormous potential everyone has talked about for years. Still, Lawrence is susceptible to pressure.
That isn’t a revolutionary statement. All quarterbacks are susceptible to pressure. But the best ones – veterans like Aaron Rodgers or mobile threats like Josh Allen – tend to thrive when you blitz them. Lawrence has not yet shown he can do that. At least not consistently. His roughest games have come against teams that throw wave after wave of pressure – Denver, Philadelphia, Houston.
The Jags’ two losses came in two of those games. Since the Colts cannot generate a lot of pressure with a four-man rush, look for blitzing. And look to see if Jaylahn Tuimoloau and Adetomiwa Adebawore can build on their strong games last week. However, he chooses to play it, Lou Anarumo cannot afford to sit back and let Lawrence pick his defense apart.
Beware Travis Hunter
Lawrence’s favorite target is Parker Washington, who has gone from a sixth-round draft pick to borderline elite in four years. He also has veteran Jakobi Meyers and tight end Brenton Strange as dangerous targets.
But the scariest thing about the Jags' passing attack is that we may be witnessing the arrival of Travis Hunter. He is still primarily a defender, but the Heisman Trophy winner who missed his entire rookie season had his best professional game as a receiver last week. Four targets. Four catches. 59 yards and a touchdown.
Adding him in the mix in the slot makes this offense far more dangerous, and the Colts have not been especially good at shutting down slot receivers this year.
Get off the field
On the other hand, the Colts’ defense has been good on third downs this year. They currently rank fourth in the league. They are going up against a Jaguars offense that is third-best in the league at converting on third down. Whoever wins this battle stands a good chance of winning the game.
This is a team effort. The offense plays a role. If they can convert their own first downs, it saves wear and tear on the defense. And a lot of third-down effectiveness is predicated on how well the defense defends on first and second down.
But there are likely to be plenty of plays on Sunday that will come down to the Colts' defense needing to stop the Jags' offense, and they have to win most of those battles.
The elephant in the room
Daniel Jones has to play better. The Jags are a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of pressuring the quarterback. They do not send the house after opposing QBs the way Minnesota did last week. But they are able to generate decent pressure nonetheless. Their blitz rate and their pressure rate are roughly the same.
But they have been very good at taking the ball away. Seven interceptions in six games. That is tied for second-best in the league. Their turnover percentage is third best in the league. It is an opportunistic defense that will make an opponent pay if they are not careful with the ball. And we all know the Colts have not been careful with the ball this year.
They have the fourth-worst turnover percentage in the league. So you have a defense that takes the ball away a lot going against an offense that turns it over. This isn’t entirely on Jones, but it starts with him. If he doesn’t play better, the Colts have little to no chance.
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