Sometimes a decision can seem so right one minute and seem so wrong the next. Every NFL general manager understands that dynamic. And still, it must have stunned Indianapolis Colts' general manager Chris Ballard how quickly his blockbuster trade for star cornerback Sauce Gardner has boomeranged on him and his club.
When he made the deal in early November, analysts were speculating on whether this move would put the Colts in the Super Bowl. A month later, it is looking like it might end up costing Ballard his job.
A combination of terrible luck and overly rosy perspective on his roster has combined to make the Gardner deal symbol number one in the Colts' 2025 implosion.
Full disclosure – I was one of those writers who thought Ballard had made a bold and brilliant move at the time. It all seemed to make sense. It seemed to make just as much sense as how short-sighted it appears now. How could we all have been so wrong?
Sauce Gardner trade may be what sinks Chris Ballard with the Indianapolis Colts
No matter what you may think of Ballard as a GM, you have to give him credit. He has made a lot of very good trades since taking over the Colts in 2017. Those trades usually involved draft picks as opposed to established players.
By swapping for picks, Ballard has acquired Quenton Nelson, Braden Smith, Zaire Franklin, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Bernhard Raimann over the last eight seasons. That is a large part of the Colts’ core.
When he made trades for established players, the results were mixed. Giving up a couple of high draft picks for Carson Wentz didn’t work out, but at least he was able to flip Wentz the following season for something in return. (Downs was one of the players who was drafted with a Wentz pick.)
On the other hand, DeForest Buckner came in 2020 and became a defensive stalwart. The Gardner deal seemed to be in the same mold.
Indy was 7-2 when the deal was made. They led the AFC South and were in contention for the best record in the league. The offense was humming. But the defense had holes. Injuries at the cornerback position were particularly worrisome.
Adding an elite shutdown corner like Gardner – and pairing him with another strong perimeter defender in Charvarius Ward – seemed like a perfect solution. In theory, it would raise the defense’s play to the level of the offense and make Indianapolis a formidable foe in the postseason.
Of course, there were naysayers. They pointed to the fact that the Colts had built their early-season record against weak opponents. Maybe, they suggested, the offense led by Daniel Jones wasn’t really as good as it looked.
They also noted that despite the injuries, the Colts’ corners had played fairly well. Indy’s real defensive problem was up front, where no edge other than Laiatu Latu could generate pass pressure. With Buckner injured, some suggested Ballard should have invested in a front-seven player who could light up opposing QBs.
Finally, there was the price. No one blinked at giving up on receiver Adonai Mitchell, but two successive first-round picks were steep. The move essentially cemented the franchise’s belief in Jones as its QB going forward, because without that draft capital, it would be hard to acquire a new front-line signal caller.
Gardner began playing right away, and he looked good. He didn’t exactly transform the defense, but it was easy to imagine the unit evolving as they all grew comfortable with each other.
Unfortunately, the progress was stifled on the second snap of Gardner’s third game with his new team. He was injured and has been unavailable in the Colts’ two biggest games to date – losses to division rivals Houston and Jacksonville. In those two weeks, Indy has fallen from first to third in the division.
Now they have lost Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles. He will miss the rest of the season, and his status for next year remains in doubt. Indy’s playoff chances are rapidly evaporating, and they have little ability to maneuver next year. Ballard has big decisions to make regarding pending free agents this offseason and next.
That is, if he’s still around. At least, the Colts signed long-time retired Philip Rivers ahead of Week 15, right?
Indianapolis has gone from arguably the top team in the league to a club with a very uncertain future in the space of a month. The trade for Sauce Gardner is not the reason. But it is a powerful symbol of a team pushing the wrong button at the worst possible time. And if Ballard isn’t able to rebound, it could end up costing him his job.