Can the Indianapolis Colts win the Super Bowl this coming season? Sure. Any team can. That's because no real games will start until September. Anything is possible for anyone, though not altogether likely.
The Arizona Cardinals, for instance, are more likely to win only three games than win a title. The Colts have fewer hurdles because the roster has a lot of talent, and that talent just needs to remain healthy and, hopefully, productive. ESPN, however, doesn't have much faith in Indy, giving head coach Shane Steichen's team only a .8 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.
That is 20th in the NFL, and third-best in the AFC South. Indianapolis is far off the number for the Houston Texans (3.2) and Jacksonville Jaguars (2.9), and not much better than the Tennessee Titans (.5). None of those numbers mean anything in reality, though.
ESPN doesn't like the Indianapolis Colts' chances to win the Super Bowl
Last season, before injuries devastated the starters and after general manager Chris Ballard had not added enough quality depth, the Colts began 7-1, and at the time held the top seed in the AFC. Once players started getting hurt, the season ended brutally at 8-9.
Still, Steichen and Ballard kept their jobs as ownership clearly thought the problem was more about injuries than the direction of the coach and GM. 2026 will be a test to see if they can keep being employed. Ballard took over his position in 2017, and his team hasn't won the division and has only made the playoffs twice.
Steichen became the head coach in 2023, but he has only gone 7-22 against teams that had a winning record at the time Indy played them. That seems like a coaching problem. Beating bad teams is expected, but beating good teams is a necessity.
If Steichen can turn that number around somewhat in 2026, and the team has a difficult start to the season, so the fix will need to come quickly, the Indianapolis Colts can definitely make a run at the division crown and a playoff spot. Once there, if the offense is humming with Daniel Jones and the defense is greatly improved due to health, Indy will be dangerous.
Plus, if they can stun ESPN, specifically, and the NFL overall, the Colts could get home-field advantage. Hosting games at Lucas Oil Stadium might be all the team needs to finally make a run at another Super Bowl title.
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