The Indianapolis Colts (6-7) defeated the Patriots (3-10) in a dramatic roller-coaster win on Sunday, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. Heading into Week 14, ESPN projects that the Colts have a 25% chance of making the postseason. The odds aren’t exactly in Indianapolis’ favor, but the Colts have a legitimate chance to earn their first playoff berth since 2020.
Despite key injuries, inconsistent play, and major issues on both offense and defense, the Colts are only 1 game below .500. They also have the second-easiest late-season schedule in the league. Indianapolis’ final 4 opponents — the Broncos (7-5), Titans (3-9), Giants (2-10), and Jaguars (2-10) — have a combined win percentage of just 41%. Only one of those teams has a winning record, while the other 3 have a total of 7 wins and 29 losses between them.
The Colts can’t afford to take any opponent for granted, but running the table is a possibility and, realistically, the only way Indianapolis has a shot at the playoffs. If the Colts can finish the regular season with a 10-7 record, they may be able to either steal the division or the 7th seed in the AFC.
The AFC South title is still up for grabs
The AFC South race looks settled on paper. With only four games left in the season, the Texans (8-5) are essentially three games ahead of the Colts, as Houston owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, Indianapolis’ favorable schedule, combined with the much more daunting gauntlet facing Houston, could make things very interesting. If the Colts win their remaining four games and the Texans lose three of their last four, Indianapolis will clinch the AFC South title and automatically qualify for the postseason. That scenario may seem highly unlikely — until you take a closer look.
After their Week 14 bye, Houston will play Miami (5-7), Kansas City (11-1), and Baltimore (8-5) before ending the season in Tennessee. All four games will pose a tough challenge. The Dolphins have been impressive since Tua Tagavailoa’s return, the Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champs, the Ravens are led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, and the Titans literally just beat the Texans in Houston. Indianapolis hasn’t cliched the AFC South in 10 years but, with a little luck, the Colts could make a late push for the title.
A Wild Card spot is another path to the postseason
Even if the division is out of reach, the Colts could still make the playoffs by securing one of the AFC’s three Wild Card slots. Unfortunately, that also looks like an uphill battle. Indianapolis is currently the 8th seed in the AFC, behind the four division leaders and three Wild Card teams — the Chargers (8-4), Ravens (8-5), and Broncos (8-5). Assuming Indianapolis can finish the season 4-0, they would still need Los Angeles to lose three games and Baltimore to drop two just to force a conference record tiebreaker.
The Colts’ best chance at advancing to the playoffs is by leapfrogging Denver for the last Wild Card spot. While the Broncos are two games ahead after their Monday Night Football victory, Indianapolis will travel to Denver in Week 15 for a matchup with huge postseason implications. With a win, the Colts could narrow the gap between the two teams and clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Broncos also end the year with a brutal stretch against the Chargers, Bengals (4-8), and Chiefs. If Indianapolis can beat Denver and their other three remaining opponents, they would only need the Broncos to lose once more to sneak into the playoffs. As we enter the last month of the regular season, Colts fans should keep their eyes on Houston and Denver.