Whether they cheer in person in Lucas Oil Stadium, tune in on television, or track the game on the phone, Indianapolis Colts fans should pay attention to three key statistics while watching their team’s season-opening contest on September 13 against the Baltimore Ravens.
Watch to see if Indianapolis scores at least 25 points, racks up big numbers in the running game, and forces at least one turnover. If the Colts hit all three of those benchmarks, history points to a happy opening day in Indianapolis, based on statistical trends last season for the Colts and the Ravens.
Here are the three numbers that will decide the Indianapolis-Baltimore matchup.
The Indianapolis Colts need to score at least 25 points
The magic number for Baltimore last season was 24 points. The Ravens were 8-1 when they held their opponent to 24 points or fewer. They were 0-8 when they gave up 25 points or more.
Digging deeper, 25 or more points won’t guarantee a Colts win this year, but 24 or fewer probably guarantees a loss. Baltimore was unlucky to lose all of those high-scoring games last season. Five of those eight losses when allowing 25 or more points were by one score or less.
However, the Ravens were dominant when they held the opponent to 24 points or fewer, winning those games by an average of two touchdowns.
Another reason to watch the Indianapolis point total: Baltimore is under the direction of a new coaching staff. Jesse Minter has replaced longtime Ravens coach John Harbaugh. Minter possesses a defense-oriented background.
Baltimore’s approach for the 2026 season is surely something like this: Keep opponents’ offenses under wraps, and star quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense will generate enough points for wins.
The Colts need at least 120 rushing yards
The statistical trickle-down effect of losing starting quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with an Achilles injury in Week 14 last season showed up in the Indianapolis running game.
The Colts had run for at least 120 yards in 7 of 12 games entering the Dec. 7 game at Jacksonville, where Jones sustained the season-ending injury. Indianapolis was 7-0 in those games.
The Colts didn’t come close to reaching 120 rushing yards in their remaining four games. Partly because opposing defenses could key in on Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis running game.
Partly because Indianapolis spent most of the last four games playing catch-up, forcing the Colts to abandon the ground game. As Indianapolis fans know, the Colts were winless in those last four games.
If Indianapolis reaches 120 rushing yards on Sunday, that probably means the Colts offense enjoyed a balanced, effective afternoon.
The Colts need to force at least one turnover (or avoid committing one)
Coaches talk endlessly about the importance of winning the turnover battle. Baltimore took it to the extreme last season.
The Ravens were unbeaten last season in the seven games in which they avoided committing a turnover. Baltimore was also winless in the six games in which its defense was unable to force a turnover.
Therefore, Indianapolis needs to avoid a “zero” in the “turnovers forced” column or post a “zero” in its “turnovers committed” column on Sept. 13. Forcing a turnover is probably the more realistic goal. The Colts generated at least one takeaway in 15 of 17 games last season.
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