Is Week 1 already a must-win for the Indianapolis Colts? The verdict after more than 40 years of Colts history in Indianapolis: Week 1 matters, but not as much as you might expect.
Yes, Colts fans have reason to worry if their team drops its Week 1 matchup Sept. 13 against the Baltimore Ravens, but shouldn’t start making postseason plans if Indianapolis pulls off an opening day win.
The truth is that most of the time, Week 1 is a lie for most teams. The Seattle Seahawks lost in their first game last season, after all, and then won the Super Bowl. Maybe Indy can do that in 2026, should it lose to the Ravens.
Indianapolis Colts' Week 1 results by the numbers
The Colts are 14-27-1 in season openers since moving to Indianapolis in 1984. Indianapolis went a well-documented 11 consecutive seasons without winning in Week 1 between 2014 and 2024. Colts fans with long memories also recall that their favorite team lost its first eight season openers after moving to Indianapolis before finally winning one in 1992.
The Colts have missed the postseason in 19 of the 28 seasons when Week 1 ended in a loss or tie. Indianapolis eventually made the playoffs in 10 of the 14 seasons in which it opened the year with a win.
Add it all up, and the Colts’ opening day result has hinted at the team’s eventual postseason fate – with a Week 1 win eventually leading to a playoff berth and a Week 1 loss eventually resulting in a missed postseason - about two-thirds of the time.
That might sound like a useful predictor, but it’s actually middle-of-the-pack in terms of which weeks of the season seem to matter most to the Colts. Seven other weeks are better bellwethers of Indianapolis’ postseason chances than Week 1.
Week 2 matters more
The Colts’ Week 2 results historically have been a better indicator of the team’s playoff chances than Week 1, with wins in playoff seasons and losses in non-playoff seasons 71 percent of the time. There is always a special energy around kickoff weekend, but it makes sense to take stock of the situation after Week 2.
Consider the possibilities this season.
If Indianapolis beats Baltimore this weekend and also knocks off the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, the Colts will have two wins in the bank with two of their tougher opponents already behind them. The postseason chances would look good.
If the Colts follow up a loss in the opener with another setback in Kansas City, they’d be 0-2. NFL history says a playoff berth after an 0-2 start is unlikely.
A split would mean the result in Week 2 canceled out the result from Week 1.
Week 2 might not get the same energy as Week 1, but it matters.
Week 18 and Week 12 matter most
It’s a small sample size, but the Colts’ Week 18 results have been both predictable and predictive.
They’ve gone 1-4 in Week 18, and they’ve always missed the playoffs since the NFL went to an 18-week schedule in 2021. Indianapolis’ four recent Week 18 losses include a pair of win-and-in games when a victory would have put the Colts in the postseason.
(Indianapolis also lost in Week 18 when the NFL used an ill-advised 16-game schedule with a double-bye in 1993. Per usual in those days, the 1993 team also missed the postseason.)
For some reason, Week 12 – generally right around Thanksgiving - has also been a strong indicator of the Colts’ eventual postseason fate during the franchise’s time in the Hoosier State, with wins in playoff seasons and losses in non-playoff seasons 79 percent of the time.
If that pattern holds this season, then pay close attention to the Indianapolis Colts' Week 12 matchup on Nov. 29 at home against the New York Giants. History says that matchup is much more of a must-win for the Colts than Week 1.
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