Carson Wentz hitting COVID-19 list completely upends AFC playoff picture

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 25: Carson Wentz #2 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a 14-yard touchdown pass to Dezmon Patmon #10 against the Arizona Cardinals during the fourth quarter at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 25: Carson Wentz #2 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a 14-yard touchdown pass to Dezmon Patmon #10 against the Arizona Cardinals during the fourth quarter at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) /
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Don’t lie to yourself and say you didn’t see this coming. The Indianapolis Colts‘ recent COVID-19 outbreak most obviously put a number of unvaccinated players at risk, and it felt like it was only a matter of time before we learned quarterback Carson Wentz would test positive.

That seemingly inevitable news came on Tuesday afternoon, when the Colts placed their starting signal caller on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, meaning he’s all but officially set to miss Sunday’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders, which has big playoff implications.

Though the Colts are likely to make the postseason, this derails their chance of capturing the AFC South. Had Indy won its final two games against the Raiders and Jaguars and the Titans lost their final two against the Dolphins and Texans (not really that crazy!), the Colts would win the division.

Even worse, though, is that their seeding could be drastically affected while the Raiders get somewhat of a gift since they’re 8-7 and battling for a spot with the Dolphins and Chargers ahead of them in the pecking order.

Colts QB Carson Wentz hitting COVID list just upended the AFC playoff picture.

On top of that, the Colts have a tiebreaker over the New England Patriots for a more favorable seed (which is probably the No. 5 spot) … but they need to win out in order to ensure that advantage. The Pats will face the lowly Jaguars and then the Dolphins in their final two games, the latter of which has a revenge factor for the Week 1 debacle on New England’s end. Don’t forget, Indy also has the tie-breaker over the Bills, should they stumble and let the Pats steal the AFC East, though that’s the least likely of all the scenarios.

If Bill Belichick and Co. take home both of those wins and the Colts drop one, then Indy gets leapfrogged. And with two games this week guaranteed to alter the current configuration (Colts-Raiders and Titans-Dolphins), this one’s going to hurt if backup Sam Ehlinger can’t keep Las Vegas on its toes.

Though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have changed the COVID-19 guidelines from a 10-day quarantine to a five-day quarantine for those who test positive for the virus, the NFL has yet to announce any alterations to its protocol. We’d bet the league is erring on the side of caution because the margin for error of games getting postponed this late in the season is razor thin.

We’re just saying expect Wentz to miss closer to 10 days than five.

Fans were warned earlier in the year about how being vaccinated greatly improved a team’s competitive edge and we talked about how the Colts didn’t have themselves in the best position possible.

It truly stinks to say “I told you so” ahead of Week 17.