The Colts’ season essentially ended when Andrew Luck was shut down for the entirety of 2017 halfway through the year. Would Indianapolis have made the playoffs with a healthy Andrew Luck last season?
Andrew Luck’s injury derailed a Colts season that could have been pretty promising if their franchise quarterback had been healthy. The AFC South was much better than it had been in recent years, but Indianapolis could’ve been competitive if Luck was in the lineup in 2017.
Figuring out these hypotheticals is never an exact science, but we may have a formula to help determine the answer to this question.
The Colts were three-point favorites at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 with the assumption that Andrew Luck would play. Las Vegas moved the line by six points when it was announced Luck was out, and that proved to be too small of a move as the Colts were totally dominated.
For the sake of this argument, let’s say Andrew Luck was worth 7 points to the spread and simply add 7 points to the Indianapolis’ final score of every game. How would the Colts have fared by simply placing Luck at quarterback in each of these games?
Week 1
L at Rams 46-16
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Week 2
W vs Cardinals 20-16
Week 3
W vs Browns 38-28
Week 4
L at Seahawks 46-25
Week 5
W vs 49ers 33-23
Week 6
L at Titans 36-29
Week 7
L vs Jaguars 27-7
Week 8
W at Bengals 30-24
Week 9
W at Texans 27-14
Week 10
W vs Steelers 24-20
Week 11
BYE
Week 12
W vs Titans 23-20
Week 13
L at Jaguars 30-17
Week 14
W at Bills 14-13
Week 15
L vs Broncos 25-20
Week 16
Tie at Ravens 23-23
Week 17
W vs Texans 29-13
By my overly simple calculations, the Colts would’ve gone 9-6-1 with Andrew Luck at quarterback in 2017. With the Titans making the playoffs at 9-7 with no Andrew Luck, this means the Colts would’ve been in the playoffs if the schedule worked out that way.
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While we’ll never truly know what the Colts could’ve been with Andrew Luck at quarterback last season, these results should give fans some reason for hope if Luck is healthy and able to play at a high level again in 2018.