Colts at Jaguars: Vegas Spread, Analysis and Picks

What does Vegas have to say about this week’s matchup between the Colts and the Jaguars?

Spread: Jaguars favored by 9.5 points

The last time these two teams met the Jaguars were 3.5-point favorites heading into a Week 7 game at Lucas Oil Stadium.

With the customary three-point home-field advantage baked into the line, that implied that the Jaguars were roughly 6.5 points better than the Colts were at the time of their first meeting.

For simplicity’s sake let’s assume the Jaguars have a three-point home-field advantage even though most experts say Jacksonville’s home field is below average.

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With this week’s line saying the Jaguars are still 6.5 points better than the Colts, there doesn’t seem to be any adjustment from their first game where Jacksonville blew the doors off Indianapolis 27-0.

The oddsmakers may be pricing in a bit of a revenge factor as the Colts have had to re-watch the film of their blowout loss in Week 7. However, Indianapolis continues to be banged up as Ryan Kelly and Rashaan Melvin have been ruled out for Sunday’s game.

With all that being said, I’d lean towards taking the Colts as an underdog here. The motivation factor should be in play, and Blake Bortles always has the ability to keep teams close with a turnover or two.

Next: How Much Longer Should The Colts Keep Chuck Pagano?

Over/Under: 41 points

No surprise to see a low total in this game that should be dominated by defense. However, each of these quarterbacks can be turnover-prone, which could lead to a defensive touchdown or setting up the offense with a short field.

I’d still lean to the under in a game that should see a lot of punts.

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