The Jaguars are favored in this week’s matchup with the Colts that will be critical in determining the pecking order in the AFC South.
Factoring in the usual 3 points for home field advantage, this point spread assumes that the Jaguars are approximately 6 1/2 points better than Indianapolis on a neutral field. However, Indianapolis will be working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, which could add a 1/2-point of value on Jacksonville.
The Colts have been much better at home this season as they’ve covered the spread in each of their three games at Lucas Oil Stadium, winning two of them outright.
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Jacoby Brissett looks to be much more comfortable in the friendly confines of Indianapolis. He’s completed 62.1% of his passes gaining 8.31 yards per attempt at home opposed to a 56.5% completion percentage and 6.09 yards per attempt on the road.
The Colts’ defense has also performed much better against the run than the pass in 2017, and that should help slow down a Jacksonville offense that prefers pounding the rock with Leonard Fournette.
With these factors in play, the Colts should be able to cover the 3 1/2-point spread this weekend with a good chance of pulling the upset. Expect Jacoby Brissett to outplay Blake Bortles and the Colts’ defense to focus on stuffing the run as they look to move up from last place in the division.