Colts at Steelers: Breaking Down the Numbers

The Indianapolis Colts head east to face the Pittsburgh Steelers and we break down the numbers on this week’s foe.

The Colts (6-5) are set to face the Steelers (6-5) in a rematch of last year’s beat down in Pittsburgh. The Steelers thrashed the Colts last year 51-34 with a truly epic performance from Ben Roethlisberger. The unbreakable quarterback completed 40-of-49 attempts for 522 yards and six touchdowns. The Colts didn’t even attempt to stop Roethlisberger.

The Steelers once again feature one of the best offenses in the NFL, with Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown basically being an NFL cheat code. Brown and tight end Heath Miller dominated the Colts last year, especially after Vontae Davis went out with a hamstring injury.

The Colts will have to figure out a way to slow down this attack and keep the score reasonable as it is highly unlikely that this offense will be able to keep up in a shootout. We’ve seen the Colts claw back into games, but they haven’t faced an offense with a dynamic playmaker like Brown this season.

Aside from a divisional showdown with the Texans in a few weeks, this will easily be the toughest game left on the Colts’ schedule.

Here’s what the numbers say about the Steelers:

The Steelers on Offense

Yardage: 4th overall (pass: 6th; rush: 8th)
Points per Game: 24.2 ppg, 10th
Efficiency: 3rd overall (pass: 8th; rush: 3rd)
Third down: 35.6%, 23rd

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The Steelers run game took a hit when Le’Veon Bell went down with injury, but DeAngelo Williams has filled in admirably. Williams had a monster game against Oakland in his first start post-Bell, but his numbers dropped off in the subsequent two games. He averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in those last couple games, but was a dangerous receiver last week against the Seahawks.

But the ground game doesn’t matter as much to the Steelers as they’ve been picking teams apart through the air. Brown has 85 receptions for 1,192 yards and was just named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month. Stopping Brown has been a problem for any team, but that goes double when Roethlisberger is on the field.

Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are both deep threat receivers, each averaging roughly 19 yards per reception. But with that vertical passing attack comes some problems on third down, where the team struggles. They don’t exactly rack up first downs, but can push the ball down field quickly.

What this means for the Colts on Defense

The Colts have to get to Roethlisberger this time around. Last year he picked apart the blitz and the Colts landed just one (one) hit on Big Ben. The Colts changed up their defensive scheme last year for this game, and it hurt them dearly as players were constantly out of position and blowing assignments.

Obviously the Colts will need to figure out a way to stop Brown, but having Davis shadow him won’t be enough (it wasn’t last year). Hopefully Mike Adams will return to the field and allow the Colts to bracket coverage on Brown. Greg Toler might be left on an island against Bryant and that could spell trouble.

This might be a good game to employ a Tampa-2 to limit the big plays. Getting to Roethlisberger is key, especially with the injury prone season he’s had (even landing a few more hit would be an improvement). But if the Colts can’t figure out a pass rush, this will be a long day for the defense.

The Steelers on Defense

Yardage Allowed: 23rd overall (pass: 30th; rush: 7th)
Points per Game: 20.9 ppg allowed, 12th overall
Efficiency: 16th overall (pass: 19th; rush: 9th)
Third down: 29.8%, 23rd

This isn’t the Steel Curtain of old, or even of eight years ago. The Steelers secondary outside of safety Michael Mitchell is really bad. Mitchell is the team’s biggest playmaker with three interceptions and two forced fumbles, he’s also third on the team in tackles.

The front three are playing very well this season, and running against the Steelers is basically a fool’s game. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in adjusted sack rate with defensive ends Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt leading the way five and 4.5 sacks, respectively. In limited work, rookie Bud Dupree has four sacks this season.

The Steelers can get to the QB, but there isn’t one player who is a dominant force on the field. It also doesn’t help that the coverage breaks down awful quickly for Pittsburgh.

What this means for the Colts on Offense

If the Colts receivers can’t get open on Sunday, something is really wrong. Everyone has been able to find room against this secondary and without a consistent pass rush, Matt Hasselbeck should have time in the pocket.

Hopefully another full week of practice with this revamped offensive line will lead to a more cohesive, less penalty prone unit. That said, there still isn’t much hope for the run game to take off this week.

Ditch the run on Sunday, and pass until Hasselbeck’s arm falls off. That should be this week’s game plan. If this turn into a shootout, I don’t like the Colts odds of winning Sunday night.

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