Colts at Falcons: Breaking Down the Numbers

The Indianapolis Colts (4-5) head south to face the Atlanta Falcons (6-3). Both teams are fresh off a bye week, but the Colts will be entering this game without Andrew Luck.

While the Colts schedule softens in the coming weeks, the Falcons present a tough matchup, especially for the Indy defense. The Colts are still in flux on offense with Matt Hasselbeck returning to the starting lineup (and hopefully avoiding chicken burritos).

Here’s what the numbers have to say about this week’s opponent:

The Falcons on Offense

Yardage: 6th overall (pass: 5th; rush: 15th)
Points per Game: 25.4 ppg, 8th
Efficiency: 16th overall (pass: 18st; rush: 10th)
Third down: 45%, 5th

The Falcons opened up the season winning five straight off the strength of an offense that never scored less than 24 points a game. They’ve faltered lately, losing three of their last four to less than stellar opponents. During this recent stretch, the Falcons have really struggled to find their offense. 

• Loss at New Orleans. The Falcons managed 21 points and turned the ball over three times. They also converted on just 3-of-12 third down attempts (while the Saints went 8-for-16 on third down).
• Win at Tennessee. A 10-7 win over the Titans isn’t anything to write home about, especially when Marcus Mariota isn’t on the field.
• Loss vs Tampa Bay. A furious second half rally fell short in overtime, and the Falcons turned the ball over four times.
• Loss at San Francisco. The Falcons lost to Blaine Gabbert. I have no words for this.

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The theme in this stretch? The Falcons averaged just under 17 points per game. If the offense falters, the Falcons can’t really rely on their defense to carry them through a game. That said, every one of these losses was winnable. The defense really only let the team down in one game (failing to get the 49ers off the field on a game ending drive).

Passing wise, the Falcons heavily favor just three targets. Julio Jones is far and away Matt Ryan‘s favorite target. Jones started the season on pace for historic numbers, but has come back to earth lately. That said, he still averages nearly nine catches per game and 114 receiving yards.

After Jones, Ryan’s second favorite target is running back Devonta Freeman, who is a threat to score whenever he has the ball in his hands. After that, former Colts tight end Jacob Tamme is second on the team in receiving yardage.

The Falcons definitely favor passing the ball, but they have a very dangerous back in Freeman. In terms of total efficiency, Freeman is ranked first in the NFL by Football Outsiders. He’s averaging 4.4 a carry and isn’t the only running back on the team doing so with IU’s Tevin Coleman also being extremely productive.

What This Means for the Colts on Defense

Stop Julio Jones. As Chuck Pagano said today, “it’s all hands on deck…nobody has had an answer yet.” Vontae Davis said that Jones is what you would get if you used “create-a-player” in Madden to make a wide receiver.

Bottling up Jones will be a challenge, let alone stopping Freeman. This is a bit of a pick your poison offense, but it’s basically between just three players. Tight coverage on Freeman out of the backfield will be key all afternoon and the Colts might as well just bracket a safety on Jones the entire game.

The Falcons on Defense

Yardage Allowed: 14th overall (pass: 19th; rush: 3rd)
Points Allowed per Game: 21.1 ppg, 13th overall
Efficiency: 22nd overall (pass: 23rd; rush: 16th)
Third down: 40.4%, 22nd

Atlanta doesn’t exactly have a hallmark on defense this season. They rank 31st in adjusted sack rate, have 14 takeaways, and struggle on third down. This unit hasn’t been a liability exactly, giving up more than 30 points just once, but relies heavily on the offense putting up a lot of points.

The past three weeks have seen the defense perform well only to be let down by the other side of the ball (although the competition might have something to do with it).

What This Means for the Colts on Offense

We can expect to see an offense reminiscent of what the Colts used the last time Andrew Luck was out. That means a heavy run emphasis, quick strike passing, and running back screens. The last one will be important as the Falcons rank 30th against running backs in a receiving roll.

The Colts won’t have to dominate offensively, but need to take advantage of the opportunities they get (especially if the Falcons cough up the ball). Most of the Falcons games have been by one score or less, and they are 3-3 in those contests.

The Colts have have a low offensive output and still win, but it wouldn’t be ideal. The Falcons have lost at home just once and if the Colts can’t find their offense it more than likely won’t result in a victory.