Colts at Panthers: Breaking Down the Numbers

The Indianapolis Colts hit the road to face the undefeated Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football. The Colts are desperate for a win, but face a tough challenge against one of the better defenses in the NFL this week.

While the Panthers appear to be a great team, thanks to their record, the numbers paint a slightly different picture. First, the Panthers have benefitted from a very favorable schedule and have yet to face a team with a winning record (not that the Colts qualify in that regard). They get to face the two worst divisions in football this season as well: the NFC South and AFC South (as well as the mess that is the NFC East).

That doesn’t make Monday’s game any easier for a Colts team that is struggling mightily on offense and has yet to show any signs of improvement.

Panthers Offense

Yardage: 27th overall (pass: 199.5, 29th; rush: 144.7, 1st)

Points per Game: 27 ppg, 7th

Efficiency: 9th overall (pass: 24th; rush: 1st)

Third down: 36.1%, 21st

The Panthers are not a dominating team on offense and have simply found a way to win week after week. Half of their wins have been by a margin on one score, another two by 11, and just one blowout win (over the Bucs). But this isn’t to say they are a bad team as they’re clearly above average on offense.

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Cam Newton has been much better in crunch time, just look at the comeback win in Seattle from two weeks ago. But looking at Newton’s passing numbers, he certainly doesn’t scare you (nine touchdowns, seven interceptions). Newton is basically the closest player physically to Andrew Luck in the NFL (Newton 6-5 and 245, Luck 6-4 240) and both ran similar 40-times. That means that even when you get to Newton in the backfield, he’s difficult to take down with one man.

The problem lies in the read-option Newton runs with Jonathan Stewart. There is a reason the Panthers have the best rushing offense in the NFL, with Newton, Stewart, and even Mike Tolbert all averaging over four yards per carry.

Without Kelvin Benjamin the Panthers receiving corps hasn’t been that stellar. They’ve had to put together a group effort, but tight end Greg Olsen is the clear favorite out of Newton’s targets.

What this means for the Colts on Defense

Stack the box to stop the run and dare the Panthers to pass. If the Colts can have success on first and second down, forcing third and longs, it will play against the Panthers strengths. The Colts are still looking for a pass rush, but they’ve spent time building a team to stop the run and this is a game where it could actually pay off.

Panthers Defense

Yardage Allowed: 7th (pass: 229.8, 8th; rush: 110, 18th)

Points per Game Allowed: 18.3 ppg, 6th

Efficiency: 6th overall (pass: 2nd; rush; 22nd)

Third down: 37.4%, 13th

No opponent has scored more than 23 points against the Panthers this season, and have held opponents to roughly 18 points per game at home. Simply put, this defense is very good regardless of the situation. Although the best offense the Panthers haven’t really faced a talented offense yet, with the best test probably being against the Seahawks (the faced the Saints minus Drew Brees).

The Panthers have yet to have a bad performance defensively this year and haven’t allowed more than 23 points in a game all season long.

What this means for the Colts on Offense

The Colts should be able to run the ball against the Panthers (barring any offensive holding penalties), so expect plenty of work for Frank Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw. The problem with passing against the Panthers for the Colts is two fold. One, they are extremely talented at stopping the pass with Josh Norman playing at an elite, lockdown corner level and defensive tackle Kawann Short dominating the interior of the line and harassing QBs.

The good news is that outside of Norman, the Panthers secondary has been average or worse. Carolina has done a great job of scheming to put players in a successful position. The other part of the problem for the Colts has been the play of Andrew Luck.

If Luck overcomes his struggles, the Colts could rattle off a number of wins over the next few weeks. But at this point, that feels like an awfully big “if.”