Colts at Bills: Next Day Analysis
By Evan Reller
We don’t overreact at Horseshoe Heroes. We’re here to give you a realistic breakdown of the Colts after each and every game.
The Colts start off the season 0-1 for the third time in the Andrew Luck-era after a disappointing Week 1 performance against the Bills. They’ve gone 11-5 every season, won the division for the past two years, and made the playoffs. While this isn’t an ideal start to the season, it wasn’t the end of the world either.
Here’s why you shouldn’t be jumping off a cliff just yet:
- Andrew Luck typically has a slow start to the season. Last year he wasn’t sharp and it led to an 0-2 start. Luck had a passer rating of 86.2 while throwing five touchdowns and three interceptions. His next two games? A passer rating of 131.9 with eight touchdowns and one interception. The Colts will be fine.
- The AFC South. The rest of the division was 1-2 this weekend. The Texans spent most of the day losing to the Chiefs, before a rally fell short. The Jags lost at home to the Panthers (who went 7-8-1 last year). Only the Titans won…because they faced the only team that was worse than them last year, the Bucs.
- It was the season opener. The NFL season is long and we just got through Week 1 and the Colts have 15 more games to go. You know what team lost their opening game last season and ended the year just fine? The Patriots. Everyone on the roster knew this was a dog of a performance, luckily the Colts come home to Indianapolis, where it won’t rain, to face the Jets next week.
- This might be the best defense the Colts face all season. Rex Ryan is a defensive genius who inherited an already extremely talented unit. Couple that with the bad weather, and some untimely injuries, and it just wasn’t the Colts day. This game was always going to be a challenge and with Luck being slightly off and the constant bad field position (average start at the 19 yard line for the Colts vs 35 for the Bills), it was basically a perfect storm against Indianapolis.
The Colts are going to be fine, but this game was ugly.
Here’s what stood out:
- Knee Bruise. Colts fans can exhale as T.Y. Hilton just has a badly bruised knee. He’s quickly been upgraded from week-to-week to day-to-day, which means he might miss a game, possibly two. The Colts will be cautious with his recovery, but they dodged a bullet with this injury.
- No separation. The Colts receivers struggled to get free from the Bills secondary. There was very little room to operate with defenders in close proximity to prevent yards after the catch (just 82 of the 243 passing yards came after the reception) or break up the pass. It will be interesting to see what the coverage looked like downfield in the coaches film.
- Out of position. Two players were forced into roles that didn’t suit them on Sunday: Andre Johnson and Darius Butler.
- Johnson isn’t done. This narrative has to go away. One game, in the rain and fans want to shovel dirt on Johnson. He was forced into a role he isn’t suited for (playing outside the numbers which isn’t where he is most useful). He had to shoulder a bigger burden once Hilton went out too. Overall, the Colts receivers didn’t handle the Bills secondary or weather very well.
- Butler isn’t a primary cornerback. Tyrod Taylor had a perfect passer rating when throwing at whoever Butler was defending. He’s a slot corner for a reason and should never be on an island without safety help.
- Speaking of an Island. Vontae Davis took Sammy Watkins on a three hour tour and they might as well have been in another state. Watkins was targeted twice for zero completions. Maybe this shadowing the primary receiver concept just might work for the Colts.
- Not a liability. The Bills probably have the best pass rush that the Colts will face all season and they managed to get out of the game with Luck still breathing. The issue on Sunday wasn’t Luck being under constant duress, but his own inaccuracies as a passer even with a clean pocket. Jack Mewhort played well against Jerry Hughes and the biggest issue was in the interior of the line (specifically between center Khaled Holmes and left guard Lance Louis). The early holds that killed drives weren’t a trend throughout the game, but did prevent the Colts from getting out to a quick start.
- Just because you’re fast, doesn’t mean you should return punts. Phillip Dorsett didn’t do return work in college. It isn’t in his skill set, really. He had back-to-back muffed punts, the second being recovered by the Bills and sealing the Colts’ fate (the rain did him no favors, but that isn’t a good excuse). Dorsett did a good job filling in for Hilton as a receiver, but maybe returning punts isn’t in his future.
- Bad spot for a field goal. Fourth-and-10 is generally not an ideal spot to try and convert, but considering the slick field, wind, and rain it also wasn’t a great time to try a 52-yard field goal. It would have been a better idea to take the short punt and try to pin the Bills inside the five. I don’t advocate punting from inside the opponents 40 yard line, but this was basically a low probability risk that essentially led to a 17-point swing for the Bills (missed FG, and Bills going two-for-none on touchdowns across the half).
The Debate
We heard more rumblings on Sunday about the growing disconnect between coach Chuck Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson. Despite the almost comical denials by owner Jim Irsay, Pagano, and Grigson this rift is real. And Sunday’s loss won’t do anything to put those rumors to bed, every loss this season will fuel the fire.
We are going to hear a lot more about this before the season is over and short of winning a Super Bowl, Pagano is going to be gone. He’ll essentially be a scapegoat for the team’s failings even though he has virtually no say in how the roster is constructed. Grigson is Irsay’s “yes-man” and that is apparently the way he likes it.
We’ll have more on this game tomorrow after studying the tape.