Indianapolis Colts Draft: Projecting the Pass Rushers

The Indianapolis Colts could be in the market for a pass rusher early in this year’s upcoming NFL Draft. While the team took a significant step in improving their pass rush from last season with the high-profile free agent addition of former Philadelphia Eagles great Trent Cole, there’s still seemingly work to be done.

Feb 22, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Clemson Tigers defensive lineman Victor Beasley goes through a footwork drill during the 2015 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Not only are pass rushers always held at a premium in today’s NFL and no defense can ever have enough of them, but two of the Colts top 3 pass rushers in Trent Cole, as well as the rehabilitating Robert Mathis are set to be 32 and 34 years old respectively when next season begins.

Fortunately, the Colts do have an emerging young pass rusher in soon-to-be 2nd-year pro Jonathan Newsome, who had a team high 6.5 sacks last season; however, the rest of their pass rushing trio is starting to get rather long in the tooth to say the least.

This year’s NFL draft is rather top heavy when it comes to premier pass rushing talent, whether it be Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr., Clemson’s Vic Beasley, Missouri’s Shane Ray, Nebraska’s Randy Gregory, or Kentucky’s Alvin “Bud” Dupree, who are all projected to be 1st round picks and to be long gone by the time the Indianapolis Colts select at #29 0verall.

However, even if one of the aforementioned “1st-tier” pass rushers doesn’t stunningly fall to the Colts, there are still a handful of other impact pass rushers projected to be available in the late 1st round or other early rounds in 2-3 of the NFL Draft. These are promising pass rushers like Virginia’s Eli Harold, UCLA’s Owa Odighizuwa, LSU’s Danielle Hunter, Washington’s Hau’oli Kikaha, Utah’s Nate Orchard, and Louisville’s Lorenzo Mauldin.

Similar to what we did when we broke down the running backs in this year’s draft class, we’ll now take an in-depth look at this year’s pass rushing crop by analyzing both their physical measurements, as well as their final collegiate season statistics. Without further ado, here’s how this talented group of pass rushers fared at this year’s NFL Draft Combine, as well as some of their Pro-Days (if applicable):

Combine Quick Hitters

Not that it necessarily matters with the Colts drafting so late in the 1st round, but one can’t help but be in awe of both Clemson’s Vic Beasley and Kentucky’s Alvin “Bud” Dupree when it comes to their physical measurables. Beasley not only ran the fastest forty time of this group at 4.53 (showing elite speed) and lifted the most bench press reps at 35 reps (showing elite strength), but he also boasted the 2nd highest vertical jump of 41.0 inches (showing elite athleticism).

Of course, the pass rusher who bested him in vertical jump was none other than Dupree, who “wowed” in his own right (42.0 inches), also running the 2nd fastest forty time at 4.56 despite coming in as the heaviest of this pass rushing group at a weighed-in 269 pounds.

Nov 8, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Owamagbe Odighizuwa (94) rushes past Washington Huskies offensive linesman Micah Hatchie (72) during the fourth quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

As far as the “second-tier” pass rushers, UCLA’s Owa Odighizuwa really stands out among the non-surefire first round picks, as he not only ran a pretty quick forty time of 4.62 at 267 pounds, but he also had the 3rd highest vertical jump (only behind two workout freaks in Beasley and Dupree) of 39.0 inches.

Otherwise, Nate Orchard (4.80) and Lorenzo Mauldin‘s (4.85) forty-time seems a bit slow compared to the rest of the pack, considering each only weighs between 250-260 pounds. However, these are also players running on the field in gym shorts for the combine’s purposes, and it’s quite possible that these two pass rushers play much quicker in helmets and pads in actual gameplay.

Next up, we’ll take a look at the actual performance of these pass rushers on the field based on their final collegiate season statistics. While having impressive physical measurables is great in-all, it’s not the only key determinant of future NFL pass rushing success.

There have been notable prospects like former New York Jets pass rushing bust Vernon Gholston, who have had great combine performances only to flop in the pros, and vice versa like current Baltimore Ravens premier sackmaster Elvis Dumervil. We’ll take a look at this year’s pass rushers production:

Performance Points

Obviously, from a statistical standpoint both Washington’s Hau’oli Kikaha and Utah’s Nate Orchard really stand-out on paper. Each pass rusher had almost 20 sacks with 19.0 and 18.5 respectively. They accumulated considerably more sacks than any other pass rushing prospect.

Oct 12, 2013; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Stanford Cardinal quarterback Kevin Hogan (8) is sacked by Utah Utes defensive end Nate Orchard (8) during the second half at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Utah defeated Stanford 27-21. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

However, that’s not all, as each of Kikaha and Orchard also had 20+ tackles for loss (TFL), indicating that each was a consistent force in their opponent’s backfield even against the running game. Specifically, Kikaha led in tackles for loss among this group with 25.0 TFL, while Orchard wasn’t too far behind him with 21.0 TFL. In Orchard’s case, he also had 84 tackles which led this pass rushing group, possibly indicating that he has a unique knack for finding the football.

While gaudy sack statistics aren’t always indicative of future NFL pass rushing success, one can’t help but be somewhat alarmed over LSU’s Danielle Hunter‘s 1.5 sack season last year. That’s a pretty low total all things considered.

The 7-9 total sack seasons by 1st-tier pass rushers like Fowler, Gregory, and Dupree aren’t as concerning, because keep in mind, an elite young NFL pass rusher like Oakland Raiders Khalil Mack (and last year’s 5th overall pick) only recorded 10.5 sacks in his final collegiate season, and that was at the University of Buffalo. Those pass rushers put those numbers up in elite conferences against the very best competition.

Personal Preference

Unless a “1st-tier” pass rusher like Bud Dupree or someone else miraculously falls, the Colts would be better served waiting until Round 2 or 3 of this year’s NFL Draft than reach on a pass rusher like Virginia’s Eli Harold.

That’s no disrespect to Harold, who’s a promising pass rusher in his own right, but his combine measurables and collegiate performance taken together don’t jump out at me enough where I’d be comfortable with the Colts selecting him in late Round 1. The Colts have been linked to Harold in many NFL experts mock drafts, so hopefully, that’s purely a guess on their part more than anything else.

However, there does appear to still be significant value when it comes to impact pass rushers that can be found in Round 2-3 of this year’s NFL Draft. A player like Washington’s Odighizuwa is clearly an elite athlete, but does that translate into an elite pass rusher? Could the team be enticed by an intriguing pass rusher like Utah’s Nate Orchard, who didn’t have perhaps the best combine measurables but was highly productive in his final collegiate season?

These are all questions that will be asked and presumably answered by Colts General Manager Ryan Grigson and his scouting department come this April’s upcoming NFL Draft. We should have our answer and hopefully a new promising young Colts pass rusher coming soon.

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