Colts at Jaguars: Breaking Down the Numbers

The Indianapolis Colts face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday and we’ve crunched the numbers on this week’s foe.

Both the Colts and Jaguars would like to wash away the taste of ugly losses from last week with a win on Sunday. The Colts were picked apart and dominated by the Steelers while the Jaguars lost to the Titans in a wild shootout.

The fourth quarter alone of the Jaguars at the Titans featured 41 combined points. Defense was apparently option in this contest. The Jaguars rallied from an 11 point deficit, but two touchdowns by the Titans in under a minute (one an impressive 87 yard touchdown run by Marcus Mariota) ultimately doomed Jacksonville.

The Jaguars are an improved team, even if it doesn’t show up in the win-loss columns. They have an offense that can move the ball, and features a lot of young talent at receiver and running back. Jacksonville’s defense has been a mess this year. They have a 1-4 record when scoring more than 23 points this season.

There are good pieces in place for the Jaguars, but they lack experience. If they continue to progress, and fix the defense, this good be a competitive team for years to come.

Here’s what the numbers have to say about the Jags this year.

The Jaguars on Offense

Yardage: 18th overall (pass: 14th run: 24th)
Points per Game: 16th, 22.9 ppg
Efficiency: 16th overall (pass: 17th run: 27th)
Third Down: 19th overall, 37.7%

Bortles is having a very good sophomore campaign in the NFL this season. He’s ranked 19th in overall efficiency, which is way up from his 44th ranking in 2014. Bortles is also fresh off a five touchdown performance, the best of his career. The problem is that his efforts came in a loss due to a poor defensive effort from the Jags.

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Bortles favorite target is Allen Robinson, who Big Ten fans should be familiar with. He had a monster game against the Titans (10 receptions, 153 yards, and three touchdowns) but has been really inconsistent this year. He often follows up a big game with a dud.

One of the biggest problems for Jacksonville has been the offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, the Jags don’t have a single player on the line playing at even an average level. They genuinely struggle to do any kind of blocking well this season.

What this means for the Colts on Defense

Despite an improved offense, the Jaguars still have their issues. They not only struggle on third down but are also 22nd in total first downs this season. This isn’t an offense that can consistently move the ball.

The Jags also rank 24th in pass protection, giving up the fifth most sacks in the NFL. The Colts haven’t had much of a pass rush, but team’s like the Jaguars can make even Bjoern Werner look like a Pro Bowler. This would be an ideal game for the outside linebackers to come out of their shells and have a big impact on the outcome of a game.

The Colts depth is going to be greatly tested Sunday with starters likely out at every level. The linebacking corps is thoroughly depleted and the Colts might not have either starting linebacker this week. Expect the Jags to attack the shallow middle of the field as the Colts struggle to cover that area even with their starters in.

While the Colts defense isn’t the best in the nation, they should be more than capable of holding the Jaguars in check, even on the road.

The Jaguars on Defense

Yardage Allowed: 23rd overall (pass: 26th run: 13th)
Points Allowed per Game: 30th, 28.4
Efficiency: 28th overall (pass: 31st run: 9th)
Third Down: 32nd overall, 46.7%

A general rule of thumb is that a defense isn’t better or worse on their down. Opponent’s conversion rate is directly related to how good or bad a defense is. With that being true, the Jaguars likely have the worst defense in the NFL. Couple that with allowing nearly 30 points per game and this defense looks like a sieve.

PFF has the Jags with just four plays at an average starter level. They don’t have anyone who stands out and makes plays for this defense. Even linebacker Paul Posluszny isn’t playing at his normal level, but it won’t matter since he’s out Sunday with a hand injury.

The defense has forced just 14 turnovers all season, ranking in the bottom third of the league. Couple that 19 giveaways by the offense and this defense is rarely put in a position to succeed.

What this means for the Colts on Offense

Not only do the Jags have the worst third down defense in the league, they’re 30th in first downs allowed. If the Colts can’t move the ball on Sunday, something is seriously wrong.

If there’s one bright point on the Jaguars defense it would be the cornerbacks. While not playing at anything resembling an elite or even good level, they are among the best players on that side of the ball for Jacksonville. That said, Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton are going to be motivated to have better performances than last week and back-to-back no shows is highly unlikely.

The Colts offensive line is being held together with duct tape and superglue right now, but it hasn’t been a liability like it should be the past two weeks. The Jaguars pass rush has been lacking (not Colts lacking, but still bad) and Jacksonville struggles to bring pressure from their defensive ends.

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Matt Hasselbeck should have time to pick apart the Jags secondary. While Jacksonville struggles against any type of receiver, they are especially bad versus tight ends. If Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen are going to have a big impact on a game, this is that game.