Colts at Titans: What to Watch For
By Evan Reller
The Indianapolis Colts (0-2) are desperate for their first win of the season. They’ll have a good chance against the Tennessee Titans (1-1), a team they have owned over the past few seasons.
The Colts need to figure out their offensive woes this week and it all starts with Andrew Luck. We can dissect the offensive line play, but as coach Chuck Pagano has pointed out, Luck is used to playing with inferior protection. We could also talk about receivers not getting open and too many big plays called back due to penalties, but that is all secondary to quarterback play.
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The simple truth is that had Luck played better over the first two weeks, the Colts are sitting at 2-0 and no one is worried. The Pagano-Ryan Grigson rift is put on the back burner and the Colts are well on their way to a 5-0 start. Winning solves everything while losing magnifies even the smallest of problems (like one of the best kickers in the NFL having the yips).
The Colts can do themselves a lot of favors with a win over a team that hasn’t beaten them since 2011 (the gas leak year). The AFC South is there for the taking, offering up three relatively easy wins over the next few weeks, a perfect opportunity before the schedule gets painfully tough in late October.
Here’s what you should watch for against the Titans:
- Do or Die. Starting 0-3 is a death sentence in the NFL. No team has made the playoffs after an 0-3 start since the 1998 Bills. The Colts have feasted on the AFC South and this is the first step in getting back to a winning record. The first two teams the Colts faced had excellent defenses that came in with a game plan to rattle Luck and it worked. The Titans are inferior to both of those rosters. A loss and we might be piling dirt on the 2015 season.
- What to Expect? Both teams are question marks right now. The Colts defense has looked good through two weeks, but injuries are taking their toll. The offense has looked like hot garbage, but clearly has the talent to be much better. The Titans looked great in their season opener against the Bucs but were terrible against the Browns, we also don’t know what this team will look like at home. This game will give a better idea of who the Colts really are this season.
- Hot Start. The Colts have been held scoreless in the first half of games so far this season. In 2014, this offense averaged nearly 29 points per game, sixth best in the league. Considering the talent level on offense, there is little reason for such a poor start. Luck has historically played extremely well against the blitz, but let the pressure get to him through two weeks. It looks as if he has been pressing and trying to hard to make a big play. Too often under Pagano this team is slow to start, but they will have a chance to get out to a quicker start against a weaker defense than they’ve faced in Weeks 1 or 2.
- The Rookie. Marcus Mariota is off a hot start in his NFL career. He took home AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after tossing four touchdowns in Week 1. But last week he was sacked seven times, largely due to holding the ball for too long. Mariota hasn’t made many mistakes yet (zero turnovers) and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him throw a “what was he thinking” type of interception. Mariota looks like the real deal for the Titans.
- Also watch for the Colts rookie, Henry Anderson. He has been better than advertised and is looking like a steal from this draft. Anderson has the highest PFF rating on the Colts defense and has already notched 11 stops in two games to go along with a sack.
- Pass Rush. Through two games, the Colts have failed to pressure two average quarterbacks (although Tyrod Taylor is extremely mobile). The Colts have just one sack, two QB hits, and 20 hurries on 63 drop backs by opponents. Trent Cole is questionable with a knee injury for Sunday, and Robert Mathis is still working back into football shape. They desperately need to harass Mariota, especially with a paper thin roster at cornerback. While the Colts may want to blitz the rookie, they also need to consider dropping players into coverage to give the secondary some extra help. Watch for the Colts to try and generate some extra pressure on a sack prone rookie.
- Turnovers. Seven times in two games the Colts have given up the ball. Five interceptions by Luck (not all entirely his fault). Another fumble by Luck and a fumble from Frank Gore on what would have been an easy touchdown. The Luck interceptions are a product of two issues: one is him pressing, trying to do too much; and two is the pressure as he’s been hit on a few of those attempts. The Colts have to do a better job taking care of the ball and that means that Luck has to take fewer risks.
This is basically a must win for the Colts in Week 3. I like Luck to respond with a big game as the Colts work towards righting the ship and clawing back to .500.