AFC South Training Camp Preview: Houston Texans

For the majority of its existence, the AFC South has been dominated by the Indianapolis Colts. But the three other teams have spent the offseason making drastic moves to unseat the Colts. Could this be the year one of these teams challenges the reigning division champs? We look at the AFC South as the teams get ready for training camp.

Houston Texans

Additions: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Chris Polk, WR Cecil Shorts, WR Nate Washington, NT Vince Wilfork, S Rahim Moore, S Stevie Brown, CB Kevin Johnson*, ILB Benardrick McKinney*, WR Jaelen Strong* (*rookie)
Losses: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Andre Johnson, G Cody White, C Chris Myers, DE/DT Tim Jamison, DE/OLB Brooks Reed, S D.J. Swearinger, S Danieal Manning.

2014 Record: 9-7

2015 Projected Record: 9-7

The Texans are in a bit of an odd spot heading into 2015. They have a roster that can contend but once again have neglected to address the quarterback position. However, considering they were forced to play four different QBs this past season, the Texans absolutely overachieved in 2014.

But saying the team hasn’t addressed QB might be a bit facetious since they didn’t really have all that many options in the offseason. The team is isn’t good enough to make the playoffs (and would likely be one-and-done if they did) but they also aren’t bad enough to get a top pick in the draft where we generally find franchise QBs.

The Texans are stuck in football limbo and barring a massive collapse or over achievement, that probably won’t change much in 2015.

Offense

2014 Stats:

17th in Yardage
14th in Points
21st in Efficiency

Nov 23, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback

Ryan Mallett

(15) throws in the pocket against the Cincinnati Bengals at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The Texans are going to have to choose between Ryan Mallett and Hoyer, and according to reports during OTAs the two look about equal. That’s surprising for two reason. One, Hoyer spent most of last season with the Browns overthrowing or one hopping passes to his receivers. And two, Mallett should have the inside track with the Texans having been with the team last season (Mallett could still be recovering from a torn pectoral, however).

Outside of the QB position, the Texans have a solid offense to work with. The pass protection was very good for the Texans last year (ranking 8th) but the run blocking was 23rd. Luckily, Arian Foster was still able to run for over 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns. Foster missed three games last season, but as long as he can remain healthy, the Texans will be able to run the ball and take the pressure off their QB.

The team lost Johnson at wide receiver, but it wasn’t a huge loss on the field (especially considering they publically stated his usage would go down). Adding Cecil Shorts (who is dangerous out of the slot, and will be better away from Jacksonville) and the rookie Strong will give the team solid option downfield with DeAndre Hopkins being the primary target.

The offense will still come down to QB play (like two other teams in the AFC South) and whether or not the Texans can finally find some consistency for at least one season.

Defense

2014 Stats:

16th in Yards Allowed
7th in Points Allowed
6th in Efficiency

Dec 21, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end

J.J. Watt

(99) during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Texans defense, or as it is known formally, the J.J. Watt‘s. As long as Watt is on the field, the Texans will have a shot at stopping any defense. Watt has been a monster in the NFL for a few years now and has set the curve at Pro Football Focus for the past few season. Watt was given a grade on +107.5 overall. The next closest grad? Raiders OLB Khalil Mack with a +55.3. That is godly from Watt, the World Breaker, as evidenced by him gaining 13 MVP votes (second to Aaron Rodgers).

Putting Wilfork, the Space Eater, next to Watt will only put more pressure on opposing lines. If Jadeveon Clowney can come back from microfracture surgery (a big “if” for an explosive pass rusher) the Texans pass rush will be terrifying. Wilfork will also help tremendously against the run, as will upgrading at inside linebacker McKinney (even though he’s a rookie).

The secondary will still be solid in 2015. The team has Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph starting with the rookie pushing for snaps. Moore is a solid pick up at safety as is Brown, both should be an upgrade at the position.

Overall, it appears that the Texans have made moderate improvements to the defense that might not make huge improvement, but will keep scores tighter next season.

Challenging the Colts

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If the Texans can’t figure out how to defend T.Y. Hilton next season, it likely won’t matter what they do. The Colts won both meetings last season, with the Texans falling 33-28 at home (which easily could have been a blowout) and 17-10 in Indy. The aforementioned Hilton had 13 receptions for 273 yards and a touchdown in those meetings (although he was double teamed the entire time in the second meeting).

The Colts will be able to hold the Texans offense in check next season and the improved weapons on offense should allow them to move the ball with relative ease.

I could see the Texans stealing the Week 5 Thursday night matchup in Houston, but that’s it (we know they won’t win in Indy, because they never have). If they find competency at QB, the Texans could stay on the heels of the Colts all season long for the division title.

2015 Prediction

Despite the improvements that the Texans have made heading into 2015, they could end up with the same record as 2014. The Texans will face a more difficult schedule this season and still have the quarterback question mark hanging over their heads.

I like the Texans to make a moderate improvement at 10-6 and push for a playoff spot.

AFC South previews:

Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars

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