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ESPN’s John Clayton: Colts Window Could Be Closing

By Luke Schultheis

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Despite having a 25 year old superstar quarterback in Andrew Luck, one NFL analyst in ESPN’s John Clayton believes the Indianapolis Colts “future isn’t as bright as it seems“.

Dec 14, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) warms up before the game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Clayton attributes the Colts to getting “lucky” in 2012 by having the good fortune of selecting Luck with the 1st overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, as well as having hit on a home run draft class to surround him with in the likes of T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, and Vick Ballard.

Prior to his year’s draft, the Colts last two drafts have produced middling results, as 2013 1st round pick Bjoern Werner hasn’t been an impact player, and the team surrendered their 2014 1st round pick to trade for Trent Richardson, who flamed out. Clayton presents the Atlanta Falcons as a cautionary tale for the Colts, as a team with their own young star franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan, who achieved initial team success only to suffer from the results of poor drafts in recent seasons.

All of which are fair or at least arguable points, but Clayton takes it a step further by indicating that it was seemingly strange to see the Colts load up on highly regarded veterans, when they were already the league’s oldest team last season:

"“From the outside, though, it seemed a little strange to see the Colts sign six new starters this offseason whose average age is 31.2. Frank Gore, Andre Johnson,Todd Herremans, Trent Cole, Kendall Langford and Dwight Lowery join what was already the league’s oldest roster in 2014, with an average age of 27.5, according to Elias,” writes Clayton.“What’s clear is the biological clock is ticking on the Colts, even though Luck is only 25 years old. It might not be now or never for Luck to get to his first Super Bowl, but the Colts could be heading down the path of five other franchises that have quality quarterbacks. Teams that don’t hit on two or three starters in each draft class eventually suffer roster decay — and that’s the position in which the Colts currently find themselves.”"

Nov 23, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri (4) kicks a field goal during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts defeated the Jaguars 23-3. Mandatory Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

At first glance, Clayton fails to account that the NFL is a “win now” league, where most head coaches and personnel only last 3-4 seasons if they fail to make significant postseason progress before being overhauled for a new regime. Yes, the Colts added some veteran players on the wrong side of 30, but the team did make the AFC Championship Game last season, and it’s possible that they were only a few missing pieces away.

Besides, the team did get “younger” by swapping out beloved, but broken down veteran Reggie Wayne for a slightly younger Andre Johnson at wideout. Somewhat misleadingly, it’s also worth noting that “40-year old veterans” like Matt Hasselbeck and Adam Vinatieri presumably inflate the Colts average age quite a bit, but their ages realistically have a minimal impact on the team given their respective roles.

However, Clayton seems to come around to the Colts “win now” approach, citing that the team has a favorable short-term window here before Luck’s new mega-contract is due (as widely speculated) and faced with a potential down year in the AFC next season:

"“The “win-now” approach taken this offseason is probably the right one. Luck will be the anchor of the franchise and should get a huge second contract next year, and given Tom Brady’s suspension in New England and Peyton Manning’s decline in play at the end of last season, there’s no reason to think the Colts won’t be one of the top contenders in the AFC again. That said, remember that the Colts have a lot of flexibility now because Luck is paid far less than his market value. Once you’re paying full freight for a player of his caliber, it won’t be as easy to shop in free agency to fill holes the draft isn’t taking care of. So the potential roster drain ahead and improvements of competitors in the AFC South — face it, the Colts have had it good in that division during Luck’s tenure — could make it hard to stay at the 11-win level by 2017 and 2018, particularly if the Colts continue to have to rely on free agency more than the draft.”"

He’s definitely right though in that the Colts need to start seeing better results out of their draft classes beyond their golden 2012 NFL Draft Class. This year’s recent draft class will need to produce at least two impact players if not more.

Going forward, the Colts simply cannot rely on just Andrew Luck and largely their 2012 NFL Draft Class as the only impact players on their roster once some of their aging veterans retire, because they won’t have the financial resources to replace them this time around.

At least, not if they want to achieve long-term success.

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