Alec Pierce has a unique skillset and has turned into one of the best vertical threats in the game. He has led the league in yards per reception for two straight seasons and brings a big-play element that is sorely lacking in the modern NFL. Those skills will be highly sought after if he hits the open market. And that is something the Colts are actively trying to avoid.
One player who stands to benefit the most from this situation is Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce. Pierce is a talented player coming off his best season as a pro, clearing 1,000 yards receiving for the first time in his career.
Pierce has a unique skillset and has turned into one of the best vertical threats in the game. He has led the league in yards per reception for two straight seasons and brings a big-play element that is sorely lacking in the modern NFL. Those skills will be highly sought after if he hits the open market. And that is something the Colts are actively trying to avoid.
But how much is Alec Pierce really worth?
Finding comps for Indianapolis Colts' Alec Pierce
Looking across multiple timeframes of production here are Pierce's closest comps among receivers who have signed contracts since 2020 here who we come up with.
Three-year comps
Player | Age | Catches | Yards | TD | yds/rr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alec Pierce (2023-2025) | 26.3 | 116 | 2,341 | 15 | 1.53 |
Robbie Chosen (2017-2019) | 27.3 | 165 | 2,472 | 18 | 1.65 |
Devin Funchess (2017-2019) | 26.3 | 110 | 1,421 | 12 | 1.51 |
Two-year comps
Player | Age | Catches | Yards | TD | yds/rr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alec Pierce (2024-2025) | 26.3 | 84 | 1,827 | 13 | 1.97 |
Kenny Golladay (2018-2020) | 27.8 | 85 | 1,528 | 13 | 2.12 |
Gabe Davis (2022-2023) | 25.4 | 93 | 1,582 | 14 | 1.39 |
Platform Year comps
Player | Age | Catches | Yards | TD | yds/rr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alec Pierce (2025) | 26.3 | 47 | 1,003 | 6 | 2.10 |
D.K. Metcalf (2024) | 27.7 | 66 | 992 | 5 | 1.81 |
Tim Patrick (2020) | 27.8 | 51 | 742 | 6 | 1.71 |
It's important to note that the contracts these players signed averaged an APY equal to 6.44% of the salary cap in the year that they signed. This year's salary cap is going to be somewhere between $301 and $306 million. For the sake of a generous estimate, applying the comparable average to a $305 million salary cap puts a reasonable estimate for Pierce's value just south of $20 million.
Alec Pierce's historic yard per catch pace
Admittedly, none of these players averaged the 20+ yards per catch Pierce has been putting up over these past few years. But it's safe to ask, "Can he maintain that level of efficiency?" If he can't, his value comes down very quickly. He has never been a high-volume receiver and isn't one to create much after the catch. His forced missed tackle rate has been south of 5% over the past three years.
Looking at a three-year sample size of the top players in yards per catch (minimum 100 catches and a forced missed tackle rate of 5% or less) since 2020 yields the following names (and the contract year following the cited production).
Mike Williams (2022), Kenny Golladay (2021), Robbie Chosen (2020), Mike Evans (2024), Donovan Peoples-Jones (2020), Ted Ginn Jr. (2020), DeVante Parker (2024), Allen Lazard (2022), Robbie Chosen (2021), Kalif Raymond (2023).
That's not exactly a murderer's row. Most of those players are complementary pieces. Only Golladay and Evans were seen as #1's when they signed their new deals, and only Evans maintained that level of play.
All of this to say that the Colts are playing with fire if they are looking to lock Pierce down to big dollars. Which brings me to the franchise tag.
The franchise tag inflates Alec Pierce's value
Going back to the $20 million valuation from earlier. I understand that free agency inflates value. I have it noted in my free agent projection for Pierce at Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The four-year, $96 million contract projection is a 20% premium on the comps I put together earlier.
But if the Colts use a franchise tag on Pierce, they will inflate his value even more. And more importantly, they will back themselves into a corner. Overthecap.com currently has the franchise tag for wide receivers estimated at $28,824,000 for 2026.
The Colts could keep Pierce off the market by using this tag on him. But that is now pushing his cost almost 45% over his value. And it immediately sets a floor for a long-term negotiation. At that point, Pierce's representation should start looking at what Colts general manager Chris Ballard would have to do to keep Pierce through 2027 if they don't work out a long-term deal. A second franchise tag in 2027 would come at a cost of 20% over the 2026 number ($34,588,800).
That's a two-year outlay of $63,412,800 and an APY of just over $31.7 million. That's just too much money for a low-volume, high average depth of target receiver. Especially when the recent history of that archetype just isn't very good.
If Pierce doesn't want to sign long-term with the Colts for less than $25 million per year, and dares Ballard to use the franchise tag, Ballard should call his bluff. The open market won't push his price tag up the same way a franchise tag would. Which could ultimately help keep him in Indy for years to come at a more reasonable price tag.