Based on perceived need, history, and consensus big board rankings, we are all beginning to develop a sense of what Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard may be intending when the NFL draft begins on Thursday.
Actually, barring an unlikely trade, the Colts’ draft does not begin until Friday. Ballard does not have a pick in the first round, after swapping it for Sauce Gardner at last year’s trade deadline. Over days two and three – again, assuming there are no trades – Ballard will make eight selections.
One of the best tools we have in predicting what may happen is the list of meetings the Colts coaches and scouts have conducted with prospects dating back to the early college All-Star games. Meetings can be formal or casual. They can occur as part of an official team visit or be a little more than an informal chat during the week of practices for the Senior Bowl.
What can we learn about the Indianapolis Colts’ draft plans based on their interviews?
Though there are some higher-profile get-togethers – at the combine, at a college’s Pro Day, or as part of each team’s 30 visits - interviews in the broadest sense of the term and with a few general restrictions, can happen anywhere.
According to publicly available sources, Ballard has conducted 14 official 30 visits. These used to be known as Top-30 visits, but the “Top” has been dropped by many outlets this year because it gave the incorrect impression that these visits were more important than others.
30 visits do matter. A team has to have a genuine interest in a player to set one up and then has to report it to the league. But if you look at the players Ballard has brought in for 30s this year, you find projected undrafted free agents mixed in with players who could be available when Indy makes its first selection with the 47th pick.
In addition to those 30 visits, Ballard has had conversations with at least four other prospects. In reality, the number is probably much higher. But these more casual contacts are harder to track
Based on what we do know, here are a couple of likely scenarios for the draft.
The highest projected picks with whom the club has met are two defensive linemen. Georgia defensive tackle Christen Miller is ranked by some scouting services as the third-best interior lineman this year. He is likely to go in the middle of round two, right around where Ballard’s first pick falls.
UCF edge Malachi Lawrence is the other highly rated front-seven player on the Colts’ 30 visit list. In a deep year for edges, Lawrence is generally projected somewhere in the top ten at his position, and many scouts have a second-round grade on him as well.
Since the Colts have major needs at both positions, one likely scenario is that they take either Miller or Lawrence in round two – or, should the board fall right, take them back to back in rounds two and three, thereby giving the beleaguered defensive front a major injection of youth and talent.
The other position Ballard seems to be looking at very closely on day two is wide receiver. He has conducted more 30 visits with wideouts than with any other position, and all three of the receivers he has met with – Louisville’s Chris Bell, Georgia State’s Ted Hurst, and Tennessee’s Chris Brazzell II – project as day two picks.
They are all also bigger receivers, which suggests Ballard and Shane Steichen have a particular type in mind.
Based on these interviews, don’t be surprised if Ballard goes for the defensive front in round two and a wide receiver, should someone fall a bit, in round three.
A few other intriguing threads are running through the meeting's log. The Colts have met with a couple of quarterbacks who are likely to be drafted in the third or fourth round. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, who had been viewed as a potential first-rounder heading into last season, and North Dakota State’s highly athletic Cole Payton could arrive to challenge Riley Leonard for the backup role.
Within the past few days, news broke that they conducted a virtual meeting with Illinois' Luke Altmyer, projected as a late-round pick or potential UDFA.
The Colts have spread out their other interviews, focusing mostly on defense. They have met with a couple of other linemen, two linebackers, and a good selection of secondary players – most of whom play safety. With just a few exceptions, most of these players are projected as late-round picks or perhaps as undrafted free agents, free to sign with any team.
The one area they seem most content with is the offensive line. Based on available data, Ballard has yet to interview anyone for the position.
Meanwhile, Ballard did meet with Keelan Crimmins, an Australian punter attending Illinois. Rigoberto Sanchez has performed well since returning from his 2022 Achilles injury, but he is now 31, and perhaps Ballard is looking for a younger and cheaper replacement. In another week, we’ll be able to stop guessing.
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