The Indianapolis Colts have a lot invested in Anthony Richardson. The first-round draft pick needs to succeed, especially where Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard are concerned, but there are plenty of obstacles standing in the way. And already, whispers have been growing louder that Richardson is a bust, especially after he injured his shoulder again during OTAs, and had to sit out. He will seemingly be back in time for training camp, but the question is whether or not it will be too late. Daniel Jones has certainly been taking advantage of Richardson's absence, reportedly performing well as he got all the reps to himself.
Now, that doesn't mean there is no hope for Richardson. Before aggravating his shoulder, he had been working hard to improve, and he may come back swinging during training camp. But the ultimate test will be during the season itself. Most analysts believe he will see playing time, and if he does, he will need to show significant improvement if he wants to keep his job.
What Richardson needs to survive
Henry McKenna gave his predictions for everything that could go right and wrong for each AFC quarterback in 2025 for Fox Sports, and of course, for Richardson that is to improve his accuracy, something any Colts fan could have predicted. But McKenna had a specific metric that Richardson needs to meet to be considered successful.
"What could go right: Richardson completes 65% of his passes.Henry McKenna
Richardson finished last season with a completion percentage of 59.5. It wasn’t good enough, especially not at 6.9 yards per attempt. So if he’s going to retain the starting job, he’s going to need to distribute the football to highly talented pass-catchers Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. This offense just needs a competent guy at the helm."
And as for what could go wrong... well, that one isn't hard to predict. It's that Daniel Jones will meet that exact same standard, which would spell doom for Richardson's future in Indianapolis.
"What could go wrong: Daniel Jones completes 65% of his passes.Henry McKenna
It’s not exactly intuitive, but here’s why this would be most unfortunate. It would mean that the Richardson experiment failed and the Colts set back their organization. But if Jones plays well, it could cloud the team's decision-making on who to invest in for the future. Indy could talk itself into extending Jones to a long-term deal similar to Baker Mayfield's (three years, $100 million). That would be a mistake. And it would also set back the organization — just like the Giants’ long-term deal with Jones did. If Jones plays well, the Colts might pursue the mirage."
Going by the numbers, Jones appears to have the advantage here. However, the best-case scenario would for Richardson to show the improvement necessary to keep his job - not just for his sake, but for the team overall. A Jones victory would mean the Colts are still on the quarterback carousel, without a long-term franchise quarterback to last through the years. A Richardson victory would signal the potential of more stability and the beginnings of a brighter future in Indianapolis.
Of course, the question is whether or not Richardson has it in him to succeed. There's no doubting the athleticism and talent are there, but can Richardson figure out how to harness it in time?