Daniel Jones is fumbling too much. You know it. I know it. The barista who makes your latte and the kid who feeds your cat when you're away know it. Daniel Jones knows it. So does Shane Steichen, and anyone else who roots for the Indianapolis Colts.
Jones and Steichen probably talk about it quite a bit. One of the byproducts of the Colts’ latest success is that we keep hearing national media types go on and on about how in synch the quarterback and the coach are. Two football nerds who sit together on the plane home from games, breaking down film.
So everyone agrees Jones has to cut down on the fumbling. If your quarterback fumbles a lot, you lose games. Don’t you?
Should Shane Steichen change the Indianapolis Colts' offensive game plan to reduce fumbling?
Well, maybe you don’t. That’s something that a couple of football nerds probably know. But in case they don’t, I’m here to remind them. You see, there is something more important than reducing fumbles. When they decide who wins and loses games, they do not count up who had the most fumbles. They count up who had the most points.
Do you know who fumbled the most in the NFL last year? Six players cracked double digits. They were all quarterbacks. Makes sense. Quarterbacks handle the ball more than anyone else.
Three of them were Kirk Cousins (tied for first with 13), Will Levis, and Caleb Williams (both tied for fourth with ten). That’s some bad QB play, right? Cousins was benched for rookie Michael Penix, Jr. Levis was demoted this year in favor of rookie Cam Ward. Williams is having a nice second season after struggling through his rookie year in 2024.
In the games they started, those QBs went a combined 14-29 last year. Of course they did. They were fumblers, and fumbling leads to losing.
Except that those QBs only represent half of the double-digit fumblers in 2024. The other three were Baker Mayfield (tied for first), Joe Burrow (third with 11), and Lamar Jackson (tied for fourth). They went a combined 31-20. All three made the Pro Bowl. Two took their teams to the playoffs while Burrow, lugging around a bad Bengals defense, just missed.
Why did the first set of fumblers fail while the second set succeeded? Simple. Mayfield, Jackson, and Burrow threw a lot of touchdown passes. They actually were the top three touchdown-throwing quarterbacks in the NFL last season, all tossing more than 40.
Shane Steichen may be tempted to design a somewhat more conservative game plan for Daniel Jones as the Colts try to secure a playoff position. He is more likely to fumble when he waits in the pocket for deep shots to open up. So why risk it? Just throw a bunch of shorter passes and run the ball more with the sensational Jonathan Taylor.
That would be the worst decision Steichen could make. (OK, you understand that I am talking about the worst football decision, right? I mean, buying the desiccated hot dog at your local multiplex might be a worse decision, but we’re not discussing that right now.)
The Colts have the best offense in the NFL because of the balance they have developed. They can run and throw. They run inside or wide. They can throw quick or deep. On any given play, all five of their eligible receivers are capable of making a big play.
Daniel Jones aggressively looking downfield to Alec Pierce or Tyler Warren is an integral part of that attack. If you take it away, defenses cheat forward and clamp down on Taylor and possession receivers like Michael Pittman and Josh Downs.
The trade-off is that Jones may fumble a few more times. But he will also generate more touchdowns, which is far more important.
So the trick for Steichen is to find ways to reduce the fumbles without backing off the aggressiveness of his play-calling. Perhaps providing an extra chip on the edge on downfield throws. Maybe rolling Jones out from time to time. Tossing in a QB draw or delayed screen to take a half step off the pass rush.
This is the exact kind of thing the football nerds Steichen and Jones should be plotting out on those heart-to-heart football talks.
The thing they should not be doing is easing up on the gas pedal because they have grown nervous in the face of a spate of fumbles. That will kill this prolific offense far faster than a few more Daniel Jones fumbles.