This Alec Pierce decision could be what keeps the Colts out of the playoffs

Reverse the trend.
Alec Pierce of the Indianapolis Colts
Alec Pierce of the Indianapolis Colts | Cooper Neill/GettyImages

The 2025 Indianapolis Colts have an almost perfect group of pass catchers. None may be the absolute best at his position, but en masse, I don’t think you could design a deeper, more balanced set of receivers and tight ends than what Chris Ballard has assembled for Shane Steichen.

There is a big, tough, sure-handed veteran possession guy in Michael Pittman, Jr. A slippery young slot in Josh Downs. The deep play threat is Alec Pierce. And there's a prototypical new tight end, Tyler Warren.

Indy even has effective depth, with a couple of kick returners in Ashton Dulin and Anthony Gould who can make plays on the perimeter or from the slot, respectively, as well as a couple of two-way tight ends who can both block and catch. Except for one of those backup tight ends, they all range in age from 23 to 28.

Textbook.

Colts' Shane Steichen needs to take full advantage of his excellent receiving corps

One game does not equal a trend. Even so, there were a couple of disturbing developments that cropped up in the Week 12 loss to Kansas City. We have already lamented the Colts' lack of faith in their running game, which led to a stagnant offense in the fourth quarter.

Here is the second part of the offensive problem. It represents the flipside of the issue.

Alec Pierce was targeted twice in the game. It was his lowest target number of the season. Heading into the game, Pierce had been targeted just over six times per game. Meanwhile, Pittman was targeted eight times, one up from his season average.

It makes sense that Pittman is targeted more than Pierce. Pittman runs shorter routes. He makes a lot of important catches. Slants on first down that keep the offense ahead of the chains. Outs on third and medium that pick up vital first downs.

And if a defense grows overly concerned with Pierce or Warren getting deep, Pittman can turn medium-length routes into big gainers. (Downs can do this, too.)

But none of it works if the offense does not keep feeding Pierce. Balance is the key to the Colts’ exceptional success on offense this season.

Both perimeter receivers saw their highest target totals in the Week 9 loss to Pittsburgh.  That game highlighted a different type of offensive imbalance – something that was also on display against Kansas City. In the Pittsburgh game, the Colts gave up on the run. The game script partly forced their hand in that, as they fell behind early.

But they were in control against KC. They could have run whatever plays they wanted. And they chose to target Pittman by a four-to-one margin over Pierce. It was the biggest imbalance between the two receivers all year.

A week earlier, against Atlanta, the exact opposite occurred. Pierce was targeted seven times to Pittman’s two. The Colts scored 31 points and won the game. The only other time Pierce out-targeted Pittman in a game this season came in Week 7 against the Chargers. Pierce caught five of his ten targets, and Indy put up 38.

Those two results by no means suggest that Steichen should be calling Pierce’s number more than Pittman’s. It’s only two games. However, when viewed alongside the Kansas City result, it does indicate that the Colts' offense functions best when all of its many weapons are employed with some balance.

Pittman is a very good possession receiver who should get a lot of throws. Pierce is a burgeoning star who runs downfield routes at a very high level. He needs more than two chances if the Colts' offense is going to carry them into the playoffs.

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