The Indianapolis Colts have watched two of their division rivals do what they can’t seem to do in recent seasons: orchestrate impressive turnarounds that result in AFC South division championships.
In 2022, it was the Jacksonville Jaguars who went last-to-first with Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and while he didn’t do it in his rookie year like C.J. Stroud did with the Houston Texans in 2023, a lot of that can probably be blamed on the complete farce that was the Urban Meyer era.
Lawrence’s Jaguars won the AFC South – and a playoff game – after winning just 15 games in the previous four seasons combined, and Stroud’s Texans did so after winning just 11 in the previous three. Stroud, the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, led the Texans to a playoff win as a rookie, and he added another AFC South title and playoff win this past season.
Now the Colts could be on the verge of witnessing all three of their division rivals pull off last-to-first turnarounds.
Titans going last-to-first in 2025?
The Tennessee Titans, winners of just nine of their 41 most recent games, are slated to pick first in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft, and the presumptive No. 1 pick is Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward, a five-year starter at the college level who threw for 4,313 yards and 39 touchdowns against just seven interceptions in his lone season as a Hurricane.
As flawed as the Titans’ roster may look, the right quarterback can go a long way toward alleviating some of the other major issues a franchise faces, and the Jaguars and Texans aren’t the only recent examples of this. Look no further than what rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels did in his first year with a Washington Commanders team that hadn’t won a playoff game in 19 years.
The Titans have some solid offensive weapons with whom Ward would be set up for instant success. Tony Pollard is a quality running back, Calvin Ridley is a proven go-to number one wide receiver, and Chig Okonkwo continues to impress as a young tight end. You’d also have to imagine that they’ll target more weapons for Ward later in the draft.
And let’s not forget head coach Brian Callahan, the former Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator who helped lead his own worst-to-first turnaround with the Bengals. In Joe Burrow’s first full season as the Bengals’ quarterback, the former No. 1 pick led the team from last place in the AFC North all the way to the Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl may be an extreme stretch for the Titans, but they are in the perfect division to execute yet another last-to-first campaign.
AFC South weakness plays to Titans' advantage
The AFC South has been the weakest division in the AFC, arguably the entire NFL, for the past few years. Its champion has gotten the No. 4 seed for five of the six most recent postseasons, including an active stretch of three in a row.
Additionally, no AFC South team has been to a Super Bowl since 2009, while every other AFC division has been represented in the “Big Game” at least once since 2018, and the AFC South has not had a representative in the AFC Championship Game since 2019. Since 2020, the other three AFC divisions have all made multiple appearances.
Ward being selected by the Titans would put him in the perfect situation to repeat what Lawrence and Stroud recently pulled off with the Jaguars and Texans.
About the only positive takeaway here for the Colts is the fact that they haven’t finished in last place in their division since 2011; only the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers have longer active streaks.
The Colts have only second and third place finishes to speak of since winning their most recent AFC South crown in 2014, a division championship drought that ranks seventh-longest in the NFL. So they technically haven’t yet had the ability to truly go from worst to first.
But the more success had by the highly touted young quarterbacks of their rivals, the more it looks like their No. 4 selection of Anthony Richardson in the 2023 NFL Draft, just two picks behind Stroud, looks like a major swing and a miss. Daniel Jones probably isn’t the answer, either.
Ward leading the Titans to a successful 2025 campaign after three straight disappointing seasons would be further salt in a seemingly unhealing wound.
But hey, at least Indy is still the AFC South’s most recent Super Bowl team – from nearly two decades ago.