All of the predictions and projections before the NFL season began that had the Houston Texans as a front-runner to win the AFC South, make the playoffs, or even further have been dead wrong. The Texans were supposed to battle with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the division, not the Indianapolis Colts.
Of course, calling this a battle at this point in the season isn't exactly accurate—the Jaguars are firmly out front at 3-1, and the Colts are 2-2, but they are in second place in the division. The story is the Texans, though: their defense is increasingly failing to meet expectations, and they're 0-4.
The good news here is that the Colts have more to gain than anyone else, because the farther back Houston falls, the better Indianapolis's chances of staying right behind Jacksonville in the division. It doesn't guarantee the Colts a playoff spot, but it does open the door for competing for one. What happened to the Texans this weekend just opened that door a little wider.
Houston Texans' 0-4 record keeps the Indianapolis Colts' playoff hopes alive (for now)
What happened was a loss, albeit a close loss, but a winnable game. The Texans hosted their state neighbors, the Dallas Cowboys, in what was a close game to the end (34-30). Had Houston's defense stepped up, C.J. Stroud's 347 passing yards and two touchdowns could have won the game.
The problem was Dak Prescott's 335 yards and one touchdown, and Javonte Williams' three rushing touchdowns that Houston's defense couldn't stop. The Texans came back from the dead last season after starting 0-3—as they did in 2018—to make the playoffs, and they tried to revive that same story this weekend, but failed.
Now sitting at 0-4, they're tied with the Tennessee Titans, also at 0-4, and at the bottom of the AFC South, looking up at Indianapolis and Jacksonville. It is perplexing that this same Texans team from last season, especially on defense, is this bad. DeMeco Ryans' job shouldn't be in jeopardy, but don't be surprised if his name starts coming up more if his team continues its free-fall.
For the Colts, who were projected to be the third-best team in the division, are the second-best, and now on a two-game win streak, the path forward is significantly more open than if the Texans were in a similar spot, or better.
Had Houston beaten Dallas, they would be hot on Indianapolis's tail. Instead, the Colts have much more room to breathe in the division with no one knocking on their back door. That being said, the Colts haven't looked great in any game this season, win or loss. Daniel Jones looks lost, and the defense is barely holding up.
As long as the Texans (and the Titans) lose, the Colts have an open window, but they need to play better, hands down, or what's happening with the Texans won't matter in the end.
