With Daniel Jones playing his way into what had the appearance of a major career shift, the Indianapolis Colts were looking like a sure-fire playoff-bound team last season. That was until Jones went down with a torn right Achilles tendon on December 7, and the Colts eventually crumbled and missed the playoffs again.
Shane Steichen was about to make the NFL playoffs for the first time during his tenure as the head coach of the Colts. Instead, he's now gone three seasons there without making them, and depending on Jones' status for next season, it's hard to say if Indy will have what it takes.
As for Steichen, though, he will get another crack at the job for a fourth season, and considering the plethora of head coaching changes this offseason, had Steichen been fired, it probably wouldn't have been overly surprising.
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen has a miserable record against teams with winning records
That said, Steichen has more than just missing the playoffs all three seasons working against him; there is another element that could lead to his demise next year if he can't course-correct.
In three seasons, Steichen has coached the Colts to 9-8, 8-9, and 8-9 records — not overly impressive, but also somewhat understandable given the quarterback situations Steichen has had to work with. Jones was by far the best option Steichen has had in Indy, so it's likely he is hoping Jones does return for next season.
That being said, Steichen has given Colts fans little to get excited about, and many of them are likely wondering why he was kept around for a fourth upcoming season, especially after knowing what Steichen's record is against teams with winning records.
In the Colts' division alone, the AFC South, Steichen is 2-10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans. During Steichen's tenure in Indy, the AFC South has been one of the NFL's softer divisions. Only the NFC South, home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and New Orleans Saints, has been weaker.
Both the Jaguars and Texans have been playoff teams with quarterbacks considered good to better, but neither has succeeded in the playoffs. The Colts have been unable to beat either team, which is alarming in itself. The troubles for Steichen extend beyond his own division, though.
Against winning teams across the league, Steichen is 7-22. If 2-10 against the better teams in his division was overly unimpressive, what do you classify 7-22 against winning teams in general? It's not good; that's what you classify it as. This factor alone should have Colts fans sitting in discomfort.
Head coaches have been fired in the past for this very same reason. It's not enough to beat the bad teams — the teams you're supposed to beat — and Steichen has done that, at least. He's 18-4 against teams with losing records, which means, at least in his division, when the Colts play the Tennessee Titans, they're usually a lock (the Colts are 5-1 against the Titans under Steichen).
Whether Steichen enters next season with a ready Jones — whom they would have to resign as a free agent — or they give Anthony Richardson another chance, or another end-of-the-line veteran quarterback for another gap season, Steichen has to fix this one problem. He has to find ways to overcome better teams with better records. Otherwise, shifty quarterback situation or not, Steichen could lose his job over this.