As soon as the Colts selected Penn State tight end Tyler Warren in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, their pick was praised by the football community. Warren was heavily linked to Indianapolis entering Thursday night, and General Manager Chris Ballard did not hesitate when the John Mackey Award winner was still available at pick No. 14.
The Colts’ decision makes sense on so many levels. Warren is a bona fide difference-maker who can catch the ball, block, and line up anywhere on the field. His blend of elite size, athleticism, and character is rare. Tight end was also a massive need for Indianapolis, so Warren looks like a perfect fit.
Unfortunately, over the last decade, nearly every team that drafted a tight end in the first round has been disappointed by the results. The Colts are hoping that Warren won’t follow the same pattern.
First-round tight ends have been a massive let-down
Player | Draft Year | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
Brock Bowers | 2024 | No. 13 |
Dalton Kincaid | 2023 | No. 25 |
Kyle Pitts | 2021 | No. 4 |
T.J. Hockenson | 2019 | No. 8 |
Noah Fant | 2019 | No. 20 |
Hayden Hurst | 2018 | No. 25 |
O.J. Howard | 2017 | No. 19 |
Evan Engram | 2017 | No. 23 |
David Njoku | 2017 | No. 29 |
In the last 10 drafts, nine tight ends have been chosen in the first round. That group has combined for just two 1,000-yard seasons, two 100-catch seasons, and a single All-Pro selection across all of their careers. Incredibly, most of those milestones are from Brock Bowers’ historic rookie season in 2024. Take that away and the numbers look even uglier.
Out of those nine first-rounders, only one player (David Njoku) received a contract extension from the team that drafted him. The jury is out on three more who are still on their rookie deals (Bowers, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts). The others were either traded away or not re-signed.
Simply put, when a franchise drafts a tight end in the first round, they are expecting a high-end, long-term offensive weapon. The fact that, since 2015, just one out of nine first-round tight ends has a chance to live up to those expectations does not bode well for Warren, Ballard, and Indianapolis.
Most of the top tight ends in the league were selected after Round 1
Player | 2024 Receiving Yards | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|
Brock Bowers | 1,194 | Round 1 (2024) |
Trey McBride | 1,146 | Round 2 (2022) |
George Kittle | 1,106 | Round 5 (2017) |
Jonnu Smith | 884 | Round 3 (2017) |
Travis Kelce | 823 | Round 3 (2013) |
Sam LaPorta | 726 | Round 2 (2023) |
Tucker Kraft | 707 | Round 3 (2023) |
Hunter Henry | 674 | Round 2 (2016) |
Mark Andrews | 673 | Round 3 (2018) |
Mike Gesicki | 665 | Round 2 (2018) |
Recent history suggests that drafting a tight end on Day 1 is not a great investment. In fact, the vast majority of the best tight ends in the NFL today were found on Days 2 and 3. That includes big names like George Kittle (Round 5), Travis Kelce (Round 3), and Mark Andrews (Round 3).
There was one first-rounder among last year’s top 10 tight ends by receiving yards and, surprise, it was Bowers. Given this data, there’s a decent chance that one of the 13 tight ends selected in Round 2 or later in the 2025 draft is a more productive player and a way more valuable pick than Warren.
The Colts are betting that Warren can replicate at least some of Bowers’ success and avoid being yet another first-round bust. Ballard’s career in Indianapolis likely depends on whether or not Warren can break this brutal tight end curse.