Believe it or not, there are numbers that favor the Indianapolis Colts as they prepare to host the Dallas Cowboys on Nov. 8.
There are realistic benchmarks the Colts can reach – even in their depleted state – that would point to a victorious Sunday in Lucas Oil Stadium against a Cowboys team that also can’t seem to get out of its own way this season.
These three statistics – all achievable - will determine if Indianapolis can end its current four-game losing streak.
The Indianapolis Colts must not allow more than 30 points
See! We told you we weren’t setting the bar too high. If the Colts can keep the Cowboys from scoring more than 30 points – a not-unreasonable ask - then recent history says Indianapolis’ chances are good.
Dallas is 1-13 since the start of the 2025 season when it scores 30 points or fewer. The Cowboys’ record swings to 8-0-1 over the same time span when they score 31 points or more.
Truly optimistic Colts fans should aim for the defense to allow no more than 23 points. Dallas is winless (0-8) since the start of last season, when it scored 23 points or fewer.
The Colts must not get outgained by more than 65 total yards
Another perfectly reasonable goal. Indianapolis doesn’t need to win the yardage column. Just keep it close. The Colts are 0-10 over the past two seasons when they get outgained by 65 or more total yards. Indianapolis has been a winning team (10-5) in all other games.
Pay particular attention to the differential in passing yards. Once again, the Colts don’t need an advantage. In fact, they don’t even need to keep it close. If Indianapolis is outgained by “only” 111 passing yards or fewer, then they’ve got a 50-50 chance to win.
The Colts are 10-9 in that scenario over the past two seasons. If the difference is 112 passing yards or more, the advantage swings to Dallas. Indianapolis is 0-6 over the past two seasons when outgained by 112 passing yards or more.
The Colts must win in the running game
Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and the Dallas passing attack get much of the attention, but the Cowboys’ success is more closely tied to their rushing statistics. Dallas is 1-11-1 over the past two seasons when it gives up more rushing yards than it gains. The Cowboys are 9-3 over the same stretch when they have an advantage in rushing yards.
It doesn’t matter how the Colts do it. It can be on the strength of a productive afternoon from whoever is left in the Indianapolis backfield at kickoff. It can be thanks to a stout effort from the defense. But the numbers indicate the path to victory against the Cowboys is on the ground.
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