Predicting the Colts' final 5 games as they fight for their playoff lives

As the Indianapolis Colts enter Week 13, they're sitting at 5-7 with a 22% chance of making the playoffs. There's been good and bad from the Colts throughout their first 12 games but the reality of the situation is that this team still has a fighting chance of making it to the postseason and stretching their season into mid-January.

With five games remaining on the Colts' schedule, they don't have much room for error at all. Losing to the Patriots this weekend would drop their playoff chances from 22% to 10% so the Colts are very much in a situation where they need to win out if they want to secure a trip to the postseason.

Let's look at the Colts' final five games and predict how those match-ups might go.

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Week 13: @ New England Patriots

The Colts hit the road this weekend for a date with the 3-9 Patriots. Once upon a time, this was THE non-divisional rivalry in the NFL back when Peyton Manning was slinging it in Indianapolis and Tom Brady was running the show in New England but we're over a decade removed from those days.

Nowadays neither of these teams strike fear into anyone. The Colts are the better team and are favored despite being on the road but anything can happen in the NFL. The Patriots aren't a good team and haven't been since Brady left in the 2020 offseason but the NFL is a crazy league (Any given Sunday and all that stuff).

While the Colts are the road team for this one, they should be able to take advantage of the Patriots' struggling defense and put up more points than they did against the Lions a week ago.

Prediction: Colts 24, Patriots 14

Week 15: @ Denver Broncos

The Colts have a late Week 14 bye that is luckily sandwiched in between two road games. When they return from their bye week, the Colts will head to Colorado for a date with the Broncos, another team they used to have a slight rivalry with back in the day after Manning left Indy for Denver.

The Broncos have not made the playoffs since their Super Bowl win in the 2015 season and this game could be a strong factor in determining who gets the final wild card spot. The Broncos are holding onto that spot right now and have a 66% chance of getting into the postseason. In other words, they will be motivated and have looked leaps and bounds better than they did earlier in the year.

If this game were in Indianapolis, I might feel more comfortable about picking the Colts to win but the Broncos have been playing really well on defense plus their offense is starting to find its footing. That's a losing recipe for the must-win Colts.

Prediction: Colts 17, Broncos 30

Week 16: vs. Tennessee Titans

Divisional games are always unpredictable. Take this past weekend's match-up between these same Titans and the Houston Texans, who are likely going to win the AFC South and represent the division in the playoffs. The Titans looked like a much better team in the narrow victory and that's a testament to how tricky divisional games are to predict.

That being said, the Colts already took care of business once against the Titans (a 20-17 win in Week 6) and the hope is that they can take the season sweep over their divisional foe. The Colts will be at home for this one, their first home game since Week 12 and the home crowd should hopefully give them a boost.

Prediction: Colts 23, Titans 16

Week 17: @ New York Giants

The Giants are an absolute mess and that's putting it lightly. They have just two wins through their first 11 games and look lifeless. The hope is that the Colts can beat down a bad team but again, any given Sunday and all that jazz.

The Colts do have to play their third road game in a four-game stretch and road games can be tricky. The good news is that if the Colts had to play a team on the road, the Giants would be a good pick because of how comically bad they've been this year. They should be heavy favorites despite being the road team and for good reason.

Prediction: Colts 35, Giants 10

Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

It's truly a disappointment that the Colts couldn't have taken full advantage of how weak the AFC South is this year because boy is this a weak division or what? We already talked about the 3-8 Titans who the Colts will host in Week 16 but they get to close the year against the even worse Jaguars, who are 2-9 and looking to be on their way to yet another rebuild.

Unfortunately, one of the Jaguars' two wins this year actually came against Indy. The Jags won a 37-34 thriller in a game where Joe Flacco did his best to keep the Colts in it but the defensive collapse was too much to overcome.

Fortunately for Indianapolis, this game is at Lucas Oil Stadium and the Colts have improved since that game while the Jags have regressed. This is hopefully a game that the good guys can win handily but divisional games are always a toss-up.

Prediction: Colts 27, Jaguars 13

If these predictions came to fruition, the Colts would end up winning four of their final five games and finish the year with a 9-8 record. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that'd be good enough to get them into the playoffs. They're going to have to win out or hope that the Broncos and Dolphins lose a few games in order to get in.