AFC South winner would be Colts' most familiar and favorable foe
On paper, whoever comes out on top of the AFC South would be the weakest division winner. If they don’t win it themselves, the Colts could face either the Jaguars or Texans in an inter-divisional Wild Card matchup. That being said, I'm sure Indianapolis wouldn’t mind playing either team over Baltimore, Miami, and Kansas City.
Jacksonville may have beaten Indianapolis twice already this season but the Jaguars are currently on a three-game losing streak and their performance has been rough on both sides of the ball. The current AFC South leaders (thanks to tiebreakers) have been challenged by poor offensive line play, a stagnant ground game, mistakes from Trevor Lawrence, a leaky defense, and injuries across the roster.
Houston, meanwhile, remains one of the most inconsistent teams in the entire league. The excitement from wins against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati must be tempered given losses to the Panthers and the Jets. The Colts beat C.J. Stroud and the Texans in their Week 2 matchup on the back of a very efficient offense and stifling run defense. Indianapolis can use the same formula against the Texans if they meet again in the playoffs.
In most scenarios, the Colts will be underdogs in the Wild Card round if they can even squeeze into the playoffs in the first place. Indianapolis will have to be ready for any opponent but there are absolutely a couple (cough Kansas City, Jacksonville, or Houston cough) that would be easier hypothetical matchups.