The AFC South has been very intriguing early in the year and this matchup will go a long way to deciding the balance of power between Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston. It’s no surprise that the Colts and Titans have both developed strong running games this season. The Colts are behind their dynamic rookie quarterback and the Titans, as always, are behind their physical freak of a running back.
However, instead of backing those runners to reach the end zone, my anytime TD picks are all pass catchers because the Titans and Colts are 23rd and 28th respectively in pass defense.
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Titans vs. Colts anytime TD picks
- Michael Pittman Jr. +175
- Kylen Granson +400
- DeAndre Hopkins +175
Michael Pittman Jr.
Last week, Pittman Jr. only had one catch for 15 yards, but he’s still clearly the No. 1 receiver on this team. He has seen 39 targets and has hauled in 26 of them for 245 yards, yet he only has one touchdown. That touchdown didn’t even come in the red zone, but he’s caught four of five red zone targets, both of which lead Indy.
Anthony Richardson likes to use his legs around the goalline, but his four rushing touchdowns on just seven red zone carries is an unsustainably high rate of conversion. He’ll need to lean on guys like Pittman.
Granson is another guy on the Colts who is receiving a lot of targets around the end zone. He had two catches for 24 yards last week and so far this season he’s seen three red zone targets. This is a crowded tight end room with Granson, Andrew Ogletree, and Mo Alie-Cox who both scored last week. It's worth noting that Granson is still receiving the most targets and the most valuable targets inside the 20.
We can’t only bet on Colts players in this one. With their defense, it’s likely that Tennessee is going to find the end zone at least once. Hopkins is the best bet to do it. Hopkins is first in targets on the team with 31 and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is second with only 16. Hopkins still has scored despite five of his 31 targets coming in the red zone. That type of target volume cannot be ignored.
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