Colts vs. Falcons prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 16

A full betting preview for the Indianapolis Colts' Week 16 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew II (10) makes a pass Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, at Nissan Stadium
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew II (10) makes a pass Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, at Nissan Stadium / Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY

Don't look now, but the Indianapolis Colts have the same record (8-6) as the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans for first place in the AFC South. The Colts have played good complimentary football on both sides of the ball, which has helped them win five out of their last six games.

The Colts will try to move one step closer to a playoff spot with a win on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are coming off a bad road loss to the Panthers, where they only scored seven points.

Indianapolis opened as 1.5-point road favorites over Atlanta, but they are now one-point underdogs.

Below, we will break down this Week 16 matchup and give our best bet!

If you are going to bet on this game, make sure to do it with our partner DraftKings! If you sign up below you will get $150 in bonus bets instantly on your first bet of $5 AND a no sweat single game parlay every day this football season! All you have to do is opt-in below!

Colts vs. Falcons Odds, Spread and Total

Colts vs. Falcons Betting Trends

  • The Colts are 5-2 ATS on the road this season
  • The OVER is 4-1 in Indianapolis’ last five games
  • Atlanta is 2-5 ATS at home this season
  • The Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. an AFC opponent

Colts vs. Falcons Injury Reports

Colts Injury Report

  • Jonathan Taylor - RB - Questionable
  • Braden Smith - OT - Questionable
  • Segun Olubi - LB - Questionable
  • Zack Moss - RB - Questionable
  • Michael Pittman Jr. - WR - Questionable

Falcons Injury Report

  • David Onyemata - DT - Questionable
  • Kaleb McGary - OT - Questionable
  • Chris Lindstrom - G - Questionable
  • Bud Dupree - LB - Questionable
  • Kentavius Street - DT - IR

Colts vs. Falcons How to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 24
  • Game Time: 1 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Colts Record: 8-6
  • Falcons Record: 6-8

Colts vs. Falcons Key Players to Watch

Indianapolis Colts

Gardner Minshew II: With a few playmakers at RB and WR banged up, the Colts will need another solid performance from Minshew II on Sunday. Last week against the Steelers, the vet signal-caller completed 18-of-28 passes for 218 yards and three touchdowns. It was the first time this season that Minshew threw three touchdowns in a game. On Sunday, he will face a Falcons’ defense that has allowed 1.4 passing TDs per game this season (20th in the NFL). 

Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson: Falcons head coach Arthur Smith hasn’t done a great job giving touches to Robinson, one of the team’s best offensive players. In last week’s loss to the Panthers, he only had eight touches (seven carries), while Tyler Allgeier had 15 touches (14 carries). For the Falcons to beat the Colts, they must get Robinson involved in the offenses.

Colts vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

The Colts are banged on the offensive side of the ball, but they showed us last week that they trust their depth. Indianapolis running back Zack Moss intends to play on Sunday after going down with an injury, while standout wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is in the concussion protocol.

If Pittman clears the protocol, Indy’s offense will be at almost full strength against a Falcons’ defense that allows 301.1 total yards per game at home this season. As for the Falcons, they will roll with Taylor Heinicke again as the starting QB after another rough outing by Desmond Ridder.

Heinicke has completed 54.7% of his passes 323 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in two starts this season. These aren’t impressive numbers by any means necessary, but he gives the Falcons a viable option at QB that won’t lose them the game. Atlanta is 4-3 straight at home this season and has lost three out of their last four games at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Nonetheless, I trust the Colts to make the necessary plays between these two teams to win the game. First-year head coach Shane Steichen is pushing all the right buttons, and this team is playing hard for all 60 minutes.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.