Colts enter the most important stretch of their season starting in Week 5
The Indianapolis Colts (2-2) have won back-to-back games, recovering from an 0-2 start and fighting back to .500 overall. While the Colts have plenty of room to improve, they have navigated a difficult start to their schedule reasonably well. After Week 4, two of their past opponents (Houston and Pittsburgh) are 3-1 division leaders, and the others (Green Bay and Chicago) are more than respectable at 2-2.
As the race for a playoff spot heats up, Indianapolis must keep winning in October if they want to take home their first AFC South title since 2014, and reach their first postseason since 2021.
Three winnable games are coming up before a late October matchup with huge playoff implications
The Colts’ next three opponents — Jacksonville (0-4), Tennessee (1-3), and Miami (1-3) — currently have a combined record of 2-10. Ironically, both of those wins were just against each other; Miami beat the Jaguars in Week 1, when they still had a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, and the Titans won their first game this past Monday, against the now Tua-less Dolphins. Although Indianapolis can’t take any game for granted, especially when they travel to Jacksonville where they haven't won in a decade, their schedule has opened up a realistic path to a 5-2 record.
At the end of this month, the Colts will play in possibly the most significant game of their season, as Indianapolis faces division rival Houston for the second time this year. After the Texans outlasted the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in the season opener, this is a must-win game. If the Colts win, they’ll stay in the hunt for the AFC South crown, and prevent Houston from locking up the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.
Indianapolis fell into a hole around this time in 2023, when they lost three straight, dropping their record to 3-5. Head coach Shane Steichen has to avoid that sort of rough stretch this season if he wants a real chance at making the playoffs.
Colts need to build momentum ahead of a brutal November schedule
Success in October is key for the Colts because of what awaits them in November. Indianapolis faces a four-week gauntlet starting Week 9, with road games against the undefeated Vikings and the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets, as well as home contests versus Super Bowl contenders Buffalo and Detroit. In a single month, the Colts will play three top-10 offenses, three top-10 defenses, and four projected playoff teams with a combined win rate of 75%.
Indianapolis shouldn’t shrink from this challenge, but walking into November with a strong record would put them in the best possible position to weather the storm. The schedule definitely gets easier after Week 12, but it may not matter anyway. If the Colts can't stay afloat for the next two months, the team will be nothing more than a sinking ship in December.